ChainCatcher reports that, according to The Block, on-chain data analysis firm CryptoQuant indicates that the “ultimate” bear market bottom for Bitcoin is currently around $55,000. However, bear market bottoms typically take several months to form, rather than being completed by a single capitulation event.
Analysis shows that Bitcoin’s realized price has historically served as a major support level during past bear markets, and the current price remains more than 25% above that level. Although Bitcoin dropped to $62,000 with a single-day realized loss of $5.4 billion—reaching a new high since March 2023—the structural bottom has not yet been reached. The total realized losses (measured in BTC) are still well below the levels seen at the end of previous bear markets: currently 3 million BTC versus 11 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market.
Several key valuation metrics also have not entered historically capitulative zones: the MVRV ratio has not hit extreme undervaluation; the NUPL indicator has not reached the historical cycle low of approximately 20% unrealized loss; long-term holders are currently at breakeven or slightly profitable, whereas at previous bear market bottoms they typically endured 30%-40% losses. About 55% of Bitcoin supply remains in profit, while cycle lows usually occur at 45%-50%. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear cycle indicator remains in the “bear market” phase rather than the “extreme bear market” phase, which historically lasts several months and signals that prices are beginning to bottom out.
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