Monero (XMR) faces the risk of breaking the $300 mark as selling pressure increases

Monero (XMR) enters a new trading week amid heavy selling pressure, with the price dropping 4% at the time of writing on Tuesday, following a 7% plunge in the previous session. This movement has brought the critical support zone around the $300 mark into the market’s focus. This privacy coin is showing clear signs of weakening demand from retail investors, as the recent decline has “wiped out” approximately $240,000 worth of Monero derivative contracts within 24 hours. Technically, the short-term outlook remains bearish, with the risk of further price correction and even a potential breach of the key $300 support level in the next decline.

Monero Bulls Weakening Under Increasing Pressure

Monero bulls are facing extremely heavy selling pressure. According to data from CoinGlass, the liquidation value of long positions over the past 24 hours has surged to $239,480, significantly surpassing the mere $693.22 liquidated on the short side. This disparity indicates a liquidity sweep mainly targeting long positions, amid continuous weakness in XMR’s spot price.

The rising liquidation pressure has also led to a sharp decline in the derivatives market. Open interest (OI) in XMR futures reached $101.65 million on Tuesday but has decreased by over 11% in just 24 hours, reflecting capital outflows following forced long liquidations. As a result, the bears are temporarily in control, with the long/short ratio dropping to 0.6548, indicating that the number of active short positions is clearly dominating the longs.

XMR Derivatives Data | Source: CoinGlass

How Low Could Monero Go?

Monero recently hit a short-term high of $364 last week, but a sharp 7% correction pushed the closing price on Sunday down to $331, reducing the weekly gain to less than 4%. On Tuesday, the selling momentum persisted with another 4% decline, keeping the price below both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA)—a sign that the short-term downtrend remains intact.

The downward pressure is pushing this privacy coin close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $302, calculated from the August 15 low of $231 to the January 14 high of $800. In this context, the support zone between $290 and $302 is expected to act as a “buffer” absorbing increasing selling pressure. However, a decisive daily close below this zone could extend the decline toward the $231 target.

Daily XMR/USDT Chart | Source: TradingView

Technical indicators on the daily timeframe continue to reinforce the downside risk as bears maintain control. The RSI is around 35 and turning downward after a weak rebound last week, indicating selling pressure has re-emerged and room for further decline remains before entering oversold territory. Meanwhile, the MACD and signal line are moving sideways after crossing on Friday but remain below zero, reflecting a neutral to bearish sentiment.

Conversely, for a sustainable recovery, Monero needs to break clearly above the confluence resistance zone from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $372 to the 200-day EMA at $381. If it manages to surpass this “threshold,” the price could target the 50-day EMA at $416, before challenging the 50% Fibonacci level around $430.