The bear market still needs to last for several more months! CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's "ultimate bottom" is at $55,000

Bitcoin has recently shown weak performance, and many investors are curious about where the bottom actually is. The analysis firm CryptoQuant points out that the “ultimate bottom” of this Bitcoin bear market is around $55,000. However, the market is still likely several months away from completing its bottoming process, and it won’t be over with just one “panic sell-off” or “capitulation.”

Key Indicator 1: The “Realized Price” Support Level Has Not Been Broken
CryptoQuant states that Bitcoin’s “Realized Price” (the average cost of all Bitcoins based on their last move in the market) has historically served as a long-term support zone during previous bear markets. Therefore, it is considered an important reference for the “ultimate bottom.”
CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin is currently about 25% above the realized price. In past bear markets, such as after the FTX collapse, Bitcoin fell about 24% below the realized price; during the 2018 bear cycle, the decline was even deeper at 30%.
More importantly, after breaking below the realized price, it typically takes 4 to 6 months for Bitcoin to form a bottom.

Key Indicator 2: The Scale of Loss Is Not Yet “Severe” Enough
Another critical signal indicating that the market has not yet bottomed is the “Realized Loss.”
Although on February 5, Bitcoin plunged 14% to $62,000, on-chain records show that the single-day realized loss reached $5.4 billion, a new high since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, even surpassing the $4.3 billion after FTX’s collapse in November 2022. However, CryptoQuant believes that even such large daily losses do not necessarily mean the bottom is near.
The report states: “The current monthly accumulated realized loss is only about 300,000 Bitcoins, far below the 1.1 million Bitcoins at the end of the 2022 bear market.”
Multiple on-chain valuation models also indicate that the market has not entered the historic “capitulation zone”:

• The MVRV ratio (market value to realized market value) has not entered the “extreme undervaluation” zone commonly seen at bear market bottoms;
• The NUPL (Unrealized Profit and Loss) still has not reached the 20% unrealized loss level typical of past cycle lows.

Additionally, the behavior of long-term holders remains relatively “calm.” Data shows that these so-called “diamond hands” investors are mostly selling Bitcoin near break-even. In previous bear market bottoms, such investors often capitulated with losses of 30% to 40%.
At the same time, about 55% of all Bitcoin is still in profit, whereas historically, this ratio tends to drop to 45-50% at bear market lows.
CryptoQuant adds that its “Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator” is still in the “Bear Phase” and has not entered the “Extreme Bear Phase,” which typically signals price bottoms. This suggests that the painful bottoming process may still continue for several more months.

After hitting the bottom, a rebound is expected by the end of the year! Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin may dip to $50,000, and Ethereum could fall to $1,400.