Trump considers limited military strikes on Iran, Middle East tensions escalate, affecting global oil markets.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently publicly stated that he is considering a “limited military strike” against Iran’s nuclear program, with a decision expected within the next 10 to 15 days. Although the door to diplomatic negotiations has not fully closed, as U.S. forces accelerate their deployment in the Middle East, energy markets have begun pricing in the potential for conflict. International oil prices have risen more than 5% this week, indicating that investors are maintaining a high level of alertness regarding the situation’s trajectory.

Decision Within 10 to 15 Days: Military and Diplomatic Actions Running Parallel

On Friday, Trump had breakfast with U.S. governors at the White House when asked by the media whether he would take military action against Iran. He straightforwardly responded, “I am considering it.” This response adds a new variable to the already tense U.S.-Iran relations.

In fact, Trump had already indicated the day before that he would decide within 10 to 15 days whether to attack the Islamic Republic of Iran. However, he also left open the possibility of reaching an agreement with Tehran on the nuclear deal, showing that the White House is still weighing diplomatic and military options.

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It is worth noting that Trump has previously warned that if the U.S. takes military action against Iran, the scale would be “far more serious” than the limited airstrikes launched in June this year against Iran’s nuclear facilities. This suggests that potential actions could escalate beyond symbolic strikes to a larger-scale conflict.

U.S. Military Buildup in the Middle East: Dual Aircraft Carrier Deployment Sends Strong Signal

Along with escalating rhetoric, the U.S. military deployment in the Middle East has rapidly expanded. Currently, the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier USS Lincoln is deployed in the region, while another carrier, USS Ford, is en route to the Middle East.

Having two aircraft carriers in the same theater is uncommon and is generally seen as a significant strategic deterrent signal. This military configuration indicates that the U.S. has the capability to rapidly escalate military actions and has led to increased speculation about the potential for conflict escalation.

Oil Prices Up Over 5% This Week: Market Begins to Reflect War Risks

Despite the shadow of military conflict looming over the markets, international oil prices have not surged dramatically but have shown relatively rational fluctuations. This week, oil prices have increased by over 5%, reflecting that traders are gradually incorporating the potential for military conflict into their pricing.

At Friday’s close, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell slightly by 4 cents to $66.39 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent crude rose by 10 cents to $71.76 per barrel. This pattern of gains followed by consolidation indicates that while the market recognizes increased risks, it has not fully priced in an imminent war.

Hormuz Strait Becomes the Biggest Variable: One-Third of Global Oil Shipping Depends on It

The real concern for energy markets is not just a single military strike but the possibility that escalation could lead to long-term disruptions in oil transportation, especially affecting the security of passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to data from energy consultancy Kpler, over 14 million barrels of oil and condensate pass through this narrow waterway daily on average in 2025, accounting for about one-third of global maritime oil exports. This makes the Strait of Hormuz a critical hub in the global energy supply chain. Any blockade or military conflict could rapidly impact markets worldwide.

Asian Economies Highly Dependent: Energy Security Under Threat

Data shows that about three-quarters of the oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz flows to major Asian economies such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea. This means that if the waterway is blocked, Asian markets will be the first to bear the brunt, with energy prices and inflationary pressures likely to rise simultaneously.

In the context of tightly interconnected global supply chains, the U.S.-Iran conflict has long transcended regional politics and become a potential risk factor affecting global economic stability.

Key Observation Period Approaching: Global Markets Hold Their Breath

The next 10 to 15 days will be a critical window for observing the development of the situation. If Washington and Tehran restart negotiations and achieve breakthroughs, the oil market may temporarily ease. Conversely, if military action occurs, market volatility could significantly increase.

Against the backdrop of intertwined energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and global economic prospects, investors and governments worldwide must prepare for different scenarios. Every move in the Middle East continues to influence global nerves.

This article, “Trump Considers Limited Military Strike on Iran, Middle East Tensions Heighten, Affecting Global Oil Markets,” first appeared on Lian News ABMedia.