Next week's macro outlook: U.S. inflation remains resilient amid tariff uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until July

BlockBeats News, February 22 — The U.S. macroeconomic outlook has shifted back to the “prolonged period of high inflation and high interest rates” theme.

On Tuesday at 23:00, the U.S. December wholesale sales monthly rate, the U.S. February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released.

On Wednesday after the U.S. stock market closes, Nvidia will announce its earnings report.

On Thursday at 21:30, the weekly initial jobless claims data through February 21 will be released.

On Friday at 22:45, the U.S. February Chicago PMI will be announced.

Latest data shows that the U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2025 was below expectations, but core GDP still grew by 2.4% year-over-year, indicating economic resilience. The same day, December core PCE increased by 0.4% month-over-month and rose to 3% year-over-year, the largest increase in nearly a year. Super-core PCE reached 3.3% year-over-year, reinforcing signals of sticky inflation.

As a result, the interest rate market has largely abandoned expectations of rate cuts in the first half of the year. According to LSEG data, traders are fully pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, but the first cut has been pushed back to July, with some institutions even warning that the risk of only one rate cut for the entire year is increasing.

Next week’s focus will be on the U.S. January PPI data. The market expects PPI to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year growth possibly falling back from 3.0% to 2.8%. If producer-side inflation remains resilient, it will further limit the Federal Reserve’s policy adjustment space.

Several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a hawkish stance. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that if inflation remains at 3% or above, the current interest rate level is “not considered high”; Board Member Barr said he does not support rate cuts until inflation continues to decline; the minutes also show some officials are open to raising rates if necessary.

Overall, while U.S. economic growth has slowed, it has not stalled, and inflation remains stubborn. Fiscal and trade policies are uncertain. In this context, short-term market volatility is likely to be driven more by data and policy expectations, with the Federal Reserve’s focus remaining on “maintaining restrictive interest rates for a longer period.”