Has Bitcoin bottomed out? CME smart money reduces short positions, "cryptocurrency zeroing" search volume soars

Bitcoin prices have fallen over 50% from their all-time highs and have recently hovered around the $60,000 mark. As CME futures short positions are being covered and U.S. retail investors panic-search for new highs, discussions about whether the bottom has been reached are heating up again. However, bottom signals are often accompanied by high uncertainty; whether this is the bottom or a temporary pause remains to be seen.

CME Smart Money Short Covering: Can History Repeat?

According to the latest U.S. CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, among Bitcoin futures traded on CME, non-commercial traders—primarily hedge funds and large institutions—have significantly reduced their net short positions, shifting toward a more bullish stance.

Despite the price decline, large speculative funds are actively building long positions, possibly expecting a rebound in the future.

Analyst Tom McClellan pointed out that similar “rapid short covering” situations occurred before major lows in 2023 and 2025, followed by gains of approximately 190% and 70%, respectively. He stated that institutional money shifting toward bullishness could help establish a bottom, but confirmation from other indicators is still needed.

Holding the 200-week moving average: Is $85,000 the next target?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently oscillating near the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). Over the past decade, this moving average has often served as a critical support zone during bear markets, including lows in 2015, 2018, and 2020.

Additionally, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory, indicating selling pressure may be gradually easing. If the price can decisively hold above the 200-week EMA and gain upward momentum, the next target could be the 100-week EMA, around $85,000. However, in 2022, a break below the 200-week EMA was followed by a 40% plunge, showing that technical support is not an absolute guarantee.

“Bitcoin Zeroing” Search Hits New High: Panic Signal Divergence

Meanwhile, Google Trends data shows that U.S. searches for “Bitcoin zeroing” reached a historic high of 100 in February. Similar peaks occurred at the end of 2017 and June 2022, when prices were near cyclical lows.

However, global search trends tell a different story. Compared to rising panic in the U.S., worldwide related searches have been declining since their peak in August last year. Additionally, Google Trends uses a relative index; with an expanding user base, a search index of 100 does not necessarily mean an absolute record high.

On the other hand, Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, found that searches for “Is cryptocurrency dead?” also hit a new high at the end of 2025, and stated, “Market capitulation was completed in December, the bottom is in, and a disbelief rally is likely to follow.”

Is the Bitcoin bottom emerging or are there still variables?

Overall, changes in futures positions, long-term technical support, and retail investor panic signals all provide potential clues for a bottom, but no consensus has been formed yet.

In the short term, the market may have rebound potential. However, if macro risks intensify or key moving averages are broken, prices could test lower levels. For investors, the key to a genuine recovery may lie in confirming narratives and building consensus, rather than relying solely on short-term signals from individual indicators.

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Does this article suggest Bitcoin has bottomed out? CME smart money reducing shorts, “cryptocurrency zeroing” searches soaring—originally published on Chain News ABMedia.