BitMine increases ETH holdings to 4.42 million coins, Fundstrat predicts an 87% win rate

Last week, BitMine (BMNR) purchased 51,162 ETH, marking the largest weekly increase since December of last year, bringing its total ETH holdings to 4.42 million. According to a report from research firm Fundstrat, ETH’s current trading price is approximately 22% below the on-chain average cost basis of investors, with an implied 12-month return of 81% and a historical success rate of 87%.

BitMine’s ETH Reserve Strategy: Continuing Accumulation Despite Over $8.4 Billion in Losses

BitMine Chairman Thomas Lee stated in a Monday announcement that the company will continue to systematically execute its ETH reserve strategy during the current “small crypto winter,” aiming to steadily accumulate holdings and optimize long-term returns. As ETH has fallen over 50% in recent months and remains significantly below the average purchase cost of $3,821, data from the smart money tracking platform Lookonchain shows that BitMine currently has an unrealized paper loss of approximately $8.4 billion.

In addition to ETH holdings, BitMine’s balance sheet includes diversified assets:

Bitcoin (BTC): 193 coins

Beast Industries Shares: Market value approximately $200 million

Worldcoin (WLD) Treasury Shares: Market value approximately $17 million

Cash and other liquid assets: Total approximately $691 million

Lee’s announcement of increased holdings comes shortly after the release of a bullish Fundstrat report, with both signals emerging within the same timeframe, forming a primary basis for market expectations of ETH bottoming.

Fundstrat On-Chain Analysis: ETH Nearing Historical Bottom Reference Zone

Fundstrat analyst Sean Farrell, based on an on-chain actual cost basis model, pointed out that ETH’s current trading price is about 22% below the investor average cost, close to the historical reference values at the 2025 bear market low (21%) and the 2022 bottom (39%), indicating that the chip structure has entered a historical bottom zone.

According to this model, ETH’s implied bottom range is between $1,770 and $1,367, with an implied 12-month return of 81% and a success rate of 87%. Currently, ETH is trading around $1,896, above the implied bottom levels but still significantly below the average purchase cost.

Meanwhile, data from SoSoValue shows that Ethereum ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) experienced net outflows of $123 million last week, indicating that institutional funds remain cautious in the short term, which somewhat conflicts with the on-chain bottom signals mentioned above.

Technical Outlook: Support at $1,404 and Resistance at $2,746 Dominating Short-Term Trends

(Source: TradingView)

The daily chart shows ETH at $1,896, with the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $2,087 and trending downward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31, approaching oversold territory; the stochastic indicator (Stoch) is at 17, indicating short-term selling dominance, but the oversold condition could trigger a technical rebound.

According to Coinglass data, ETH experienced $135.8 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $112 million, reflecting continued leverage pressure. Key technical levels are as follows: short-term resistance at $2,107 and $2,388, with further resistance at $2,746; support levels are at $1,741 and $1,524, with a critical support at $1,404 if broken.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is BitMine continuing to accumulate ETH despite huge unrealized losses on its books?

A: BitMine employs a long-term corporate asset reserve strategy, viewing ETH as a core reserve asset. Chairman Thomas Lee stated that the company evaluates its strategy from a long-term holding perspective. Short-term paper losses do not alter the overall direction, and the goal of increased accumulation is to optimize long-term returns.

Q: How should the 87% success rate from Fundstrat be interpreted?

A: Fundstrat compares ETH’s current market price to the on-chain investor average cost basis. Historically, in scenarios where the deviation is similar (around 22% below cost), holding ETH for 12 months has resulted in positive returns approximately 87% of the time. This is a statistical historical success rate and not a direct prediction of future performance.

Q: Does the continued outflow from ETH ETFs contradict the bottoming signals from on-chain data?

A: ETF fund flows reflect short-term institutional sentiment, while on-chain cost basis models measure long-term chip structure. They are different analytical frameworks and should be evaluated separately. Fundstrat’s bottom model primarily relies on on-chain data and does not incorporate ETF flows as a main variable.