Michael Saylor: Bitcoin's 45% retracement is like the "Valley of Despair" that Apple once went through

As Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its all-time high and market sentiment has become more cautious, Strategy founder Michael Saylor compares this correction to the “Valley of Despair” that Apple experienced during its stock price plunge years ago, emphasizing that deep retracements are often necessary stages for great tech assets to undergo long-term value re-evaluation.
(Background recap: Strategy is buying again! Posting orange adds during the crash, Michael Saylor is unafraid of breaking below cost.)
(Additional context: Willing to sell a kidney but not Bitcoin—genius or a complete scammer, Michael Saylor?)

Table of Contents

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• Using Apple as a Mirror: From Undervalued to Reborn
• Bitcoin’s 45% Retracement: An Inevitable Part of Historical Cycles?
• Market Structure Shift: Is Volatility Being “Compressed”?
• From Quantum Threats to Noise: Saylor’s View on “FUD”
• The Valley of Despair: A Test and a Filter

As Bitcoin has declined over 40% from its peak, Strategy founder Michael Saylor has spoken out again. He likens the current Bitcoin correction to Apple’s “Valley of Despair” during its 2013 stock price plunge, emphasizing that truly successful tech investments often have to go through deep corrections and market skepticism. Saylor believes that volatility and retracements are not signs of failure but necessary phases toward long-term value re-evaluation.

Using Apple as a Mirror: From Undervalued to Reborn

Saylor specifically highlights Apple’s low point in 2013. At that time, Apple’s stock had fallen about 45% from its high, with its P/E ratio dropping below 10, and the market viewed it as a mature company with stagnant growth. Despite the iPhone’s large global user base, investors doubted its future innovation potential.

It wasn’t until years later, with heavyweight investors like Carl Icahn and Warren Buffett backing it, that market confidence gradually returned, and Apple’s stock fully resumed its growth trajectory.

Saylor points out that, in the long run, that “valley” became a key window for long-term investors to position themselves.

Bitcoin’s 45% Retracement: An Inevitable Part of Historical Cycles?

Currently, Bitcoin has fallen about 45% from its near $125,000 all-time high, mirroring Apple’s nearly identical decline. In an interview with Coin Stories, Saylor said:

“Almost no successful tech investment avoids a 45% retracement and passing through that Valley of Despair.”

He emphasizes that this correction could last months or even years. “If this bottom lasts seven years, congratulations—that’s no different from Apple’s journey.”

Market Structure Shift: Is Volatility Being “Compressed”?

Saylor further notes that today’s market differs significantly from past bull-bear cycles. He believes that derivatives trading has gradually shifted from offshore platforms to regulated U.S. markets, leading to a reduction in volatility. Compared to past bear markets where declines of 70-80% were common, the current 40-50% retracement can be seen as “compressed turbulence.”

However, he admits that traditional banks are still reluctant to provide sufficient credit support for Bitcoin assets. Some investors turn to shadow banking or rehypothecation structures, which can amplify selling pressure during market stress.

From Quantum Threats to Noise: Saylor’s View on “FUD”

Regarding the potential threat of quantum computers to Bitcoin’s network security, Saylor is clear: there is no immediate risk. He believes quantum computing is still at least ten years away from posing a real threat to current cryptography. By then, global governments and financial systems will have transitioned to “post-quantum cryptography,” and Bitcoin software can be upgraded through consensus mechanisms.

Additionally, recent controversies surrounding Jeffrey Epstein’s files have been used by some to attack Bitcoin core developers. Saylor dismisses these as “FUD”—fear, uncertainty, and doubt—and sees them as no different from past debates over energy consumption or block size.

The Valley of Despair: A Test and a Filter

From Apple’s stock lows to Bitcoin’s deep correction today, Saylor’s core message is clear: truly disruptive tech assets often have to go through skepticism and intense volatility before gaining widespread acceptance.

For short-term traders, a 45% retracement might signal risk; but for long-term believers, it could be a period of deep value re-assessment. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen. But in Saylor’s view, Bitcoin is currently in its “Valley of Despair.”