Pi Network holds at $0.1533, with 32 million tokens unlocked, creating supply pressure

Pi Network (PI) token remains above $0.1600, continuing the roughly 2% rebound from the previous day, but supply-side pressure is increasing. In February, 32.36 million PI tokens are still set to unlock, with an estimated 154 million tokens scheduled for March, indicating ongoing accumulation of token supply pressure. Technical indicators show weakening buying momentum, and the support level at $0.1533 will be a key threshold for short-term bullish and bearish dynamics.

Supply Pressure: Token Inflows to Exchanges and Upcoming Unlocks

(Source: PiScan)

The rapid increase in centralized exchange PI balances is one of the most direct on-chain signals reflecting holder selling intent. When tokens flow heavily into exchanges, it usually indicates holders preparing to sell. The 2.16 million PI inflow over the past 24 hours, in the context of no clear bullish trend yet, constitutes a notable short-term selling pressure.

Unlock Schedule’s Longer-Term Impact

Remaining February Unlock: 32.36 million PI tokens, short-term supply increase confirmed

Projected March Unlock: approximately 154 million PI tokens, nearly 5 times February’s amount, significantly extending market pressure window

Current CEX Holdings: over 432 million PI, roughly valued at $7.08 million, indicating substantial token distribution pressure remains

The ongoing monthly unlock mechanism means that even if a technical rebound occurs in the short term, the increasing supply will continue to exert structural resistance on PI’s price growth.

Technical Analysis: RSI Weakening and Key Price Level Battles

(Source: TradingView)

Pi Network fell about 15% after hitting resistance at $0.1919 and is now consolidating above the support at $0.1533 (October 10 low). Monitoring this level is crucial for recent trend direction:

Bullish Support: $0.1533 has been an effective recent technical support. If held, technical targets for a rebound are sequentially $0.1749 (50-day EMA), $0.1919 (downtrend line resistance), and $0.2613 (September 23 low).

Bearish Risk: Falling below $0.1538 support could open the risk of testing the February 6 low at $0.1300.

Technical indicators currently lean toward a defensive stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined from a high of 62 on February 17 to around 47, crossing below the midline, indicating diminished buying momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly flat above the signal line, with the positive histogram shrinking, suggesting increasing downside risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is there a large inflow of tokens into centralized exchanges?

Large inflows into centralized exchanges typically signal increased selling intent from holders, possibly from early miners who have completed KYC migration to the mainnet and are cashing out, or short- to medium-term holders adjusting positions with caution. Significant inflows often create short-term selling pressure before the market absorbs the supply.

How will the 154 million token unlock in March affect PI’s price?

The 154 million unlock represents a substantial increase in supply, accounting for over one-third of current exchange holdings (432 million). If most of these tokens enter the market, it could directly increase selling pressure; if holders choose to retain, the impact may be limited. The unlock itself is a structural risk, with actual effects depending on holder behavior.

What is the technical target if PI breaks above the 50-day EMA?

If PI successfully breaks above $0.1749 (the 50-day EMA), the short-term target according to technical analysis is $0.1919 (the downtrend resistance connecting the August 30 and February 15 highs). Further breakout above $0.1919 could lead to testing higher resistance at $0.2613. However, given ongoing supply pressure, such breakouts require clear volume confirmation to be credible.