Gate Research Institute: Circle stock price breaks through $90 | Jane Street accused of "manipulating Bitcoin to drop 10 points"

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

• BTC (-0.37% | Current price: 67,228 USDT): Bitcoin previously dropped sharply to $62,501 before stabilizing and rebounding, with an intraday high of $70,003. It then pulled back and is now fluctuating above $67,000. Overall, market sentiment has significantly improved, but short-term consolidation is underway. On the technical side, the MA5 and MA10 formed a golden cross at low levels, driving a rebound. Currently, moving averages are leveling off, with prices oscillating around the MA30, intensifying short-term bullish and bearish battles. During the rally, volume increased noticeably, but recent volume has contracted, indicating a slowdown in momentum. Resistance is at $68,000–$69,000; a volume breakout could test $70,000 again. If it faces resistance and pulls back, support is near $66,000. Overall, the pattern is a strong oscillation with a bullish bias.
• ETH (-0.30% | Current price: $2,021): Ethereum followed the broader market decline, forming a local bottom around $1,800, which it quickly rebounded from after touching that support level, reaching a high of $2,148. After the rally, profit-taking occurred, and the price has fallen back to around $2,020, consolidating at high levels. On the technical side, MA5 and MA10 formed a golden cross at low levels, pushing prices higher with increased volume, indicating strong capital inflow. The short-term moving averages are gradually flattening, with prices oscillating around the MA system. The MA30 has turned upward, providing some support. During the rally, volume was significantly higher, then contracted for consolidation, typical of a healthy correction after an upward move. Short-term resistance is at $2,050–$2,080; a volume breakout above $2,100 could retest the high of $2,148. If resistance persists, prices may dip to $1,980–$2,000 for support. Overall, the trend remains strong but momentum is waning, leaning toward sideways consolidation.
• Altcoins: Most mainstream altcoins are slightly down, with market sentiment mainly neutral or bullish. The Fear & Greed Index today is at 13, still in extreme fear territory, indicating market sentiment has not yet fully recovered.
• Macro Overview: On February 27, the S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86 points; the Dow Jones rose 0.03% to 49,499.20 points; the Nasdaq declined 1.18% to 22,878.38 points. As of 11:07 (UTC+8) on February 27, spot gold is at $5,182.27 per ounce, down 0.06% in 24 hours.

Hot Tokens to Watch

POWER Power Protocol (+113.53%, Circulating Market Cap approx. $407 million)

According to Gate data, the current price of POWER is about $1.93, up 113.53% in 24 hours. Power Protocol provides infrastructure for gaming, consumer applications, and on-chain entertainment experiences, supporting multiple use cases within its ecosystem through a unified token system, including integrations with various game developers.

Recent market news suggests several reasons for POWER’s surge: first, increased trading activity across multiple pairs, especially on decentralized and centralized exchanges, indicating rising market interest. Second, its narrative around GameFi and on-chain entertainment infrastructure has attracted some risk-tolerant investors, boosting short-term trading activity. However, the rally also involves volatility and capital rotation, driven largely by market sentiment.

RAVE RaveDAO (+34.27%, Circulating Market Cap approx. $88.26 million)

Gate data shows RAVE is currently priced at $0.38182, up 34.27% in 24 hours. RaveDAO is a crypto entertainment ecosystem centered on music events and Web3 community experiences, expanding influence through offline events and partnerships worldwide.

The recent rise in RAVE can be attributed to: overall market sentiment improving before the holiday, leading to capital inflows into small-cap assets; increased activity and trading interest in RAVE, which also contributed to the price increase. Previously, whale token withdrawals from exchanges reduced liquidity, which also helped push prices higher. Currently, the short-term rally mainly reflects improved market sentiment and short-term capital rotation in high-risk assets.

DENT Dent (+83.70%, Circulating Market Cap approx. $35 million)

Gate data shows DENT is currently priced at $0.0004034, up 83.70% in 24 hours. DENT is a decentralized telecom asset focused on mobile data and eSIM trading, aiming to build a peer-to-peer network data exchange ecosystem.

The recent surge in DENT appears to be driven by speculative short-term activity: capital rotation into low-market-cap, high-volatility assets has increased interest and inflows. Technical analysis shows rapid upward movement on high volume. Social media and market chatter link its recent performance to upcoming industry events, fueling speculative trading. However, some view the rally as a short-term squeeze, with potential for profit-taking at high levels.

Alpha Insights

Suspected Insider Betting on ZachXBT Exposure of Axiom, Profiting Over $411,000

On-chain tracker @lookonchain revealed that Polymarket user “predictorxyz” (suspected insider) heavily bought “Yes” shares in the prediction market “Will ZachXBT accuse Axiom of insider trading?” with a low entry price of $0.138, investing about $65,800. When the event was confirmed as “Yes,” this account made approximately $411,400, one of the top winners in this case.

Previously, investigator ZachXBT accused Axiom employees of abusing internal tools to track private wallet activity and obtain sensitive user info for insider trading since early 2025. Axiom, founded in 2024, participated in Y Combinator’s winter 2025 batch. The incident drew widespread attention, and the prediction market’s top-ranked outcome was ultimately correct.

Jane Street “Manipulating Bitcoin’s 10 AM Drop” Lacks Data Support; ETF Mechanisms Likely Main Cause

Regarding recent claims on X platform that “Jane Street suppresses Bitcoin price at 10 a.m. ET daily to accumulate ETF shares,” market data and expert opinions show no direct evidence. Some crypto accounts suggest that since late 2025, Bitcoin has experienced frequent 2–3% dips within minutes after US stock market open, with prices falling from $125,000 to $62,000, attributing this to Jane Street. However, analyst Alex Kruger’s data indicates no consistent, systemic selling pressure during 10:00–10:30 ET; the volatility aligns more with macro risk appetite shifts than with single-entity manipulation.

Industry insiders note that as a designated participant (AP) in spot Bitcoin ETFs, Jane Street’s trading should be understood within ETF operation mechanisms. APs can create shares via “in-kind” creation when demand rises and may short ETF shares before hedging, under certain regulatory exemptions. This “short first, then allocate spot” process can cause short-term volatility at market open but does not equate to market manipulation. No on-chain or exchange data currently shows coordinated suppression by Jane Street; such claims are more likely market sentiment expressions amid a prolonged downtrend.

Circle’s Stock Surges Past $90, “Decoupling” from Crypto Market; Polymarket Becomes New Growth Driver

Circle’s stock briefly surpassed $90 on Thursday, reaching a new high since mid-November, with nearly 30% gains after earnings release. Bernstein reaffirmed a “buy outperform” rating and a $190 target, citing quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding expectations, and noting a clear “decoupling” from overall crypto trends. The report highlights strong trading revenue growth, including blockchain rewards from Circle as a Canton network validator and an increase in USDC holdings to 17% of total supply. The company expects USDC circulation to grow at about 40% CAGR, with non-reserve income expanding.

Mizuho Securities raised its target price from $77 to $90 but maintained a “Neutral” rating, citing rising activity in prediction markets like Polymarket as a key driver of recent USDC demand. Prediction markets are viewed as scalable, transparent stablecoin applications that can boost trading revenue and reserves. The report also mentions “AI-powered payment agents” as a potential long-term positive. However, it warns that future rate cuts could pressure Circle’s overall profitability through reserve interest income.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/GT_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/price
• X, https://x.com/lookonchain
• Coindesk, https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/02/26/why-crypto-x-thinks-jane-street-crashed-bitcoin-and-what-s-actually-behind-the-10-am-slam
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/391518/circle-shares-90-bernstein-divergence-crypto-mizuho-polymarket-boost

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Disclaimer Cryptocurrency market investing involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct independent research and fully understand the assets and products involved before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from such investment decisions.