Bitwise Backtesting: The probability of Bitcoin holding for 3 years resulting in a loss is only 0.7%, short-term trading carries high risk

Bitwise analysis of BTC historical data shows that the probability of losing money when holding Bitcoin for more than three years is only 0.7%, and zero over ten years. However, short-term trading carries a risk of loss as high as 47%.
(Background: MicroStrategy has issued $6 billion in perpetual preferred stock to raise funds for large-scale Bitcoin purchases.)
(Additional context: Some say they’d rather sell a kidney than sell Bitcoin. Is Michael Saylor a genius or a complete scammer?)

In the cryptocurrency market, we often hear an old saying: “Cherish life, stay away from contracts.” The true key to profit may not be chasing price surges and panic selling, but rather making friends with time.

According to the latest historical data backtest from Bitwise Europe, Bitcoin’s loss probability is highly negatively correlated with holding time:

• Holding for over three years, loss probability drops sharply to 0.7%
• Holding for five years, loss probability is only 0.2%
• Holding for ten years, the historical win rate reaches 100%

The deadly flaw of short-term trading: nearly half face losses

In stark contrast to long-term holding, short-term trading risks are extremely high. According to the same data, the loss probability for day trading is as high as 47.1%, 44.7% for one-week holding, 43.2% for one-month, and even with a one-year hold, the loss probability remains at 24.3%.

This explains why, in the market environment of early 2026, investors with different holding periods are in vastly different situations. For long-term holders who entered 3 to 5 years ago, the average realized price (cost basis) is about $34,780. Even after a 50% drop, they still retain approximately 90% unrealized profit.

Meanwhile, investors with 6 to 12 months of experience have an average cost basis of about $101,250 and are currently facing around 35% paper losses; those with 1 to 2 years of experience have a cost basis of approximately $78,150 and face about 15% losses.

The time advantage: key to crossing cycles

This data once again tells investors: short-term volatility is heavily influenced by macro policies, leverage unwinding, and liquidity, which can cause panic selling. But when looking at the longer horizon, Bitcoin has gone through multiple bull and bear cycles, and long-term holders have almost always avoided losses.

Of course, history doesn’t necessarily predict the future 100%, but for investors considering entering the crypto market, this data sends a clear message: “Your time in the market” is far more important than “predicting the entry point.” If you can withstand short-term fluctuations, time may become the best tool to reduce risk.