CITIC Securities: The situation in Iran is still changing rapidly, and it is expected to be difficult to predict and interpret based on the final scenario all at once.

Odaily Planet Daily reported that CITIC Securities research report stated that on February 28 local time, the situation in Iran entered a phase of military conflict outbreak. The situation in Iran is still changing rapidly. CITIC Securities predicts that it is difficult to estimate and interpret based on a final scenario all at once, and it is more likely to fluctuate continuously following important signals. CITIC Securities believes that whether there are potential changes in three key signals—U.S. military movements, changes in Iran’s political situation, and the scope of conflict spillover—will determine whether the global market impact will be an amplified version of the “Twelve Days War” until June 2025 or escalate into a more extreme scenario. To provide a reference for potential market impacts, CITIC Securities reviewed the market effects of eight major conflicts in the Middle East since 1970 and summarized the following patterns: safe-haven assets like gold outperform the dollar, oil prices remain focused on supply and demand in the long term, U.S. stock performance is directly related to the level of U.S. military intervention and the course of the conflict, and there is no significant impact on Chinese assets. (Jin10)