Gate Research Institute: Bitcoin, Crude Oil, and Gold Trends and Investment Opportunities Amid US-Iran Conflict

Key Summary

• After Israel and the U.S. launched a joint airstrike on Iran, gold and crude oil gaps opened higher on Monday, global stock markets opened lower, Bitcoin volatility increased, triggering about $80 billion in market cap fluctuations within hours.
• Gold is supported by real interest rates and central bank gold purchases; crude oil is influenced by OPEC+ capacity and geopolitical risks. Both serve as traditional safe havens and inflation hedges during conflicts.
• Market forecasts suggest a low probability of full-scale war, but risks to the Strait of Hormuz are significant; short-term asset volatility is driven by risk premiums, while medium to long-term depends on conflict duration and monetary policy paths.
• If the situation ultimately moves toward compromise or phased de-escalation, commodity prices may sharply retreat; conversely, gold and oil prices could further surge.
• Currently, Gate has launched trading for XAUT/USDT and other precious metals, tokenized stocks, indices, forex, and commodities. Investors can use Gate TradFi features for 24/7 trading to quickly seize market opportunities.

1. Short- and Long-term Trends of Bitcoin, Oil, and Gold

1.1 Opening on Monday, March 2, 2026

On Saturday, the U.S. and Israel conducted a joint airstrike on Iran, causing Bitcoin to plummet to $63,000. Hours later, Iranian state media confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in the strike. Bitcoin then rebounded strongly from the low, surging from $63,000 to around $68,000. This caused about $80 billion in market cap swings within hours, during a weekend with the lowest liquidity, forcing approximately 157,000 traders to liquidate, with total losses of $657 million.

During the sell-off, traders flocked to decentralized platforms, engaging in 24/7 perpetual contracts for oil and gold to hedge during traditional market closures. This capital flow weakened crypto buy-side depth and increased downward pressure on Bitcoin during a critical support phase. The interaction between spot crypto sales and commodity perpetual contracts during geopolitical shocks is a relatively new market dynamic.

Image: Tokenized Gold and Bitcoin 7-day trading overview

1.2 Long-term Trends and Correlation Analysis

Historically, Bitcoin has been dubbed “digital gold” as a safe haven. For example, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in late February 2022, markets briefly believed Russian funds might flow into crypto, causing Bitcoin to spike about 20%, briefly surpassing $45,000. In June 2025, escalating geopolitical risks between Israel and Iran also saw Bitcoin briefly rally. Later, in October, discussions around “currency devaluation” and sovereign debt (the so-called “debasement trade”) led Bitcoin and gold to rise together, driven by macro uncertainty, reaching new highs.

Image: Bitcoin, Gold, and WTI Oil Price Trends

However, since late 2025, Bitcoin’s safe-haven role has weakened, with analyses showing its performance during risk events diverging from gold. The October 2025 crash reflected Bitcoin acting more like a risk asset than a safe haven during macro shocks, diverging from gold and U.S. Treasuries. Under inflation or macro stress, gold continues to rise, while Bitcoin often falls or moves in tandem, indicating the “digital gold” narrative is not fully realized in current markets. Recent macro shocks show trade policy risks and global uncertainties cause Bitcoin to decline and gold to rise, further damaging Bitcoin’s safe-haven reputation.

Since 2020, weekly correlation analysis shows Bitcoin exhibits “risk asset” characteristics. Its correlation with NASDAQ reaches 0.43—the highest in the matrix—indicating strong linkage with tech stocks, especially post-2020 pandemic easing, 2021 liquidity bull market, and 2023–2025 AI-driven tech rallies, when risk appetite increased. Conversely, Bitcoin’s correlation with the USD index is -0.24; during the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022, Bitcoin was under pressure, confirming its sensitivity to global liquidity. Gold (XAU) correlates strongly negatively with the USD (-0.53), reflecting traditional safe-haven logic, while Bitcoin’s correlation with gold is only 0.15, showing its “digital gold” attribute is unstable. Overall, since 2020, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-beta macro risk asset, driven mainly by liquidity cycles and risk sentiment rather than pure geopolitical safe-haven demand.

Table: Correlation analysis of BTC, WTI, and Gold

In contrast, gold and oil are primarily influenced by real interest rates, dollar strength, and geopolitical risk premiums. During the 2020 pandemic, massive central bank easing and falling real rates pushed gold to record highs; in 2021–2022, Fed rate hikes and dollar strength kept gold high but volatile. Geopolitical tensions and central bank gold accumulation later reinforced gold’s safe-haven and reserve qualities, pushing prices higher and hitting new peaks. On the supply side, global gold production has grown modestly, with limited new large mines, and rising costs due to energy and labor prices; stricter environmental regulations also limit capacity expansion. Since 2020, gold markets show “rigid supply and financialized demand.”

Crude oil experienced historic shocks in 2020, with WTI briefly turning negative amid the pandemic, then recovering rapidly supported by global economic recovery and OPEC+ cuts. In 2022, energy supply concerns pushed prices above $100/barrel; later, slowing growth and weaker demand expectations caused prices to retreat. Supply-wise, OPEC+ manages prices through long-term cuts, with Middle East spare capacity as a buffer; U.S. shale output recovered gradually from 2021–2023, but with disciplined capex slowing expansion compared to the 2010s. From 2024–2025, oil prices fluctuate amid geopolitical conflicts, shipping risks, and demand slowdown, showing high volatility. Overall, since 2020, oil’s core features are “demand shocks—supply battles—geopolitical premiums,” with prices elevated from pandemic lows but highly sensitive to macro and policy shifts.

2. Future Outlook

2.1 Asset Impact Analysis

At Monday’s market open, Iran-related fears caused gaps higher in gold and oil, and a broad stock market decline, reflecting panic. The main transmission channels indicate that Iran’s crisis impacts the global economy mainly through energy shocks, with the severity and duration of the crisis being key factors.

Generally, rising uncertainty and tail risks lead markets to increase risk premiums. For example, over the weekend, short-term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about energy prices. Currently, markets have somewhat digested some slowdown risks and inflation upticks.

Image: US Implied CPI YoY Expectations

Market pricing is highly sensitive: if the situation de-escalates or reaches a phased compromise, the accumulated geopolitical premiums could quickly unwind, causing sharp declines in commodities; if the conflict spirals and deepens, gold and oil could surge further.

2.1.1 Impact on BTC and Other Crypto Assets

Impact so far: During the US-Iran conflict news, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility. On the 15-minute chart, BTC briefly dropped to around $63,000, then rebounded above $68,000, entering high-range oscillation. Short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) crossed with the longer-term MA30 multiple times, indicating rapid sentiment shifts. Overall, Bitcoin behaves more like a “high-volatility risk asset” than a stable safe haven—initial liquidity-driven drops followed by rebounds as risk assets recover. This suggests short-term funds prefer deleveraging and risk reduction amid geopolitical shocks.

Image: BTC/USDT 15min candlestick

Institutional forecasts: Major institutions have mixed views but generally see “short-term pressure, medium-term dependence on liquidity”:

• Bloomberg Intelligence notes that during early conflict, markets tend to adopt a “haven-first” strategy, with crypto moving in tandem with stocks and risk assets, often under short-term pressure.
• JPMorgan’s digital asset team states Bitcoin acts more as a “risk appetite asset,” highly correlated with liquidity, USD index, and real rates, not a pure safe haven.
• CoinShares reports that if conflict raises oil prices and inflation expectations, delaying Fed easing, crypto could face phased outflows.
• Standard Chartered suggests that in extreme financial instability or rising sovereign risk, Bitcoin might regain “alternative asset” appeal, but this lags initial risk sell-offs.

Overall view:

• If conflict remains regional with limited oil price impact → BTC likely stays volatile within high ranges.
• If oil surges and delays rate cuts → BTC may face liquidity pressure.
• If systemic financial concerns emerge → BTC could attract “hedge against credit risk” flows in a second phase.

2.1.2 U.S. Stocks

Impact so far: In the context of escalating US-Iran tensions, NASDAQ shows risk-off traits. The index rose above 25,400 but then sharply declined, breaking previous support levels, with a low near 24,500. The 15-minute chart shows a pattern of “highs weakening → support broken → weak rebounds → new lows,” with diminishing rebound strength and clear bearish momentum. Tech stocks are sensitive to liquidity and rate expectations; amid rising oil prices and inflation fears, risk appetite shrinks, especially for growth stocks.

Overall, the recent conflict has compressed the risk premium in NASDAQ, shifting from “risk-on” to “defensive.”

Image: NAS100/USDT 15min chart

Institutional forecasts:

• Bloomberg Intelligence states that during Middle East escalation, markets tend to adopt “risk-off + haven-first” strategies, with tech stocks leading declines.
• JPMorgan warns that sustained oil price increases could limit Fed rate cuts, pressuring high-valuation tech stocks.
• Goldman Sachs notes that early conflict phases see rising volatility, with NASDAQ often falling more than S&P 500.
• Morgan Stanley indicates that if energy prices stay high, valuation compression in growth stocks could intensify.

Overall:

• If conflict remains regional and oil stabilizes → NASDAQ may enter high-volatility sideways.
• If oil breaks key levels and fuels inflation → Tech stocks could continue under pressure.
• If tensions ease quickly → Risk appetite may recover, possibly triggering a technical rebound.

Currently, NASDAQ is in a short-term downtrend channel; future direction depends on oil, USD, and Treasury yields, and whether conflict escalates further. In the short term, markets are slightly disturbed by geopolitical sentiment; long-term, fundamentals and valuations will dominate. AI bubble risks are lower, and the application of AI in war could benefit U.S. tech stocks.

2.1.3 Gold (XAU)

Impact so far:
Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, gold quickly showed safe-haven features. On the chart, gold surged sharply during news release, breaking previous highs and reaching new peaks, then consolidating at high levels.

On 5- and 15-minute charts, moving averages are bullishly diverging, with multiple support tests and continued upward pushes, indicating strong capital inflow. During volatile periods of risk assets like BTC, gold remains relatively resilient, reflecting safe-haven flows. Overall, this conflict has significantly increased gold’s “risk premium.”

Image: XAUT/USDT 15min chart

Institutional forecasts:

• Bloomberg Intelligence states that during Middle East escalation, gold is the primary safe haven, with funds flowing into gold and Treasuries rather than crypto.
• Goldman Sachs notes that persistent supply risks and inflation expectations will support gold’s rally.
• JPMorgan suggests that if oil prices rise and real rates fall or USD weakens, gold could reach new highs.
• World Gold Council reports that major conflicts initially boost gold ETF inflows and futures long positions.

Overall:

• If conflict remains regional → Gold likely stays high and stable.
• If escalation drives inflation expectations higher → Gold could enter a sustained uptrend, possibly surpassing $6,000/oz.
• If conflict de-escalates quickly → Safe-haven premiums may recede, and prices could retrace support levels.

2.1.4 Oil

Impact so far:
In the context of US-Iran tensions, WTI crude oil experienced typical “risk premium jump.” Prices surged to over $75, then sharply retreated to around $69, before rebounding to $72–73. The 15-minute chart shows “emotional spike → quick profit-taking → secondary recovery,” with increased volatility. Initial fears of Middle East supply disruptions pushed risk premiums higher; subsequent price declines reflect market views that supply remains intact. Overall, this conflict has elevated oil price volatility.

Image: Light Crude Oil Futures 15min chart

Institutional forecasts:

• Goldman Sachs suggests that if conflict persists without actual supply disruption, oil may stay in a risk premium range; if supply is affected, prices could spike further.
• JPMorgan emphasizes that the key variable is whether the Strait of Hormuz is genuinely threatened; if shipping is blocked, prices could surge.
• Rystad Energy notes that partial disruptions in Middle East supply could lead to high volatility and higher prices.
• Bloomberg Intelligence believes current oil gains are driven more by risk premiums than inventory changes; future moves depend on actual export impacts.

Overall:

• If conflict remains localized with no real disruption → WTI likely stays between $70–$75.
• If shipping or capacity is affected → Prices could break previous highs and rally sharply.
• If tensions ease → Risk premiums decline, and prices may retreat to previous ranges.

Currently, oil has completed initial emotional reactions and is in a “recovery phase,” with future direction highly dependent on geopolitical developments and actual supply impacts. Escalation threatening Strait of Hormuz shipping could push prices higher.

2.2 Market Outlook Analysis

Using Polymarket’s latest odds, the geopolitical conflict can be broken into key branches.

2.2.1 Event Tree

(1) The market assigns a very low probability to “full invasion”

Polymarket estimates the probability of “U.S. invading Iran before 3/31” at about 7%. This refers to a military offensive with control over parts of Iran, distinct from quick strikes or proxy conflicts. The market views a full ground invasion as a low-probability tail event.

Image: U.S. invasion prediction before 3/31

(2) Core macro risk: the tail risk of Hormuz being blocked is not low

Compared to full invasion, the market prices the risk of “Iran closing or severely restricting Hormuz before 3/31” at about 42% (3/31), 44% (6/30), and 49% (12/31). This reflects high sensitivity to geopolitical news. Over 20% of global oil passes through Hormuz; sustained disruption could push oil above $100/barrel.

Image: Iran blocking or restricting Hormuz before 3/31

(3) Duration of conflict expected to cool within weeks, but formal ceasefire likely later

Polymarket estimates a ~47% chance that “conflict ends before 3/31,” based on 14 days of no new military activity. Another market predicts a ~55% chance of “U.S. and Iran reaching a formal ceasefire before 3/31,” with about 71% before 4/30.

Images: Conflict ending before 3/31; U.S.-Iran ceasefire timing

These suggest traders expect conflict intensity to decline in weeks, but formal peace to be later.

2.2.2 Asset Impact Forecasts

(1) Crude oil is the most direct geopolitical pricing asset

Oil prices are influenced by two layers: geopolitical risk premiums and supply/disruption risks. Elevated conflict and shipping risks increase premiums; actual supply disruptions could push prices higher. Short-term, markets expect oil to rise as a consensus, even if no full blockade occurs, as shipping/insurance costs rise. Polymarket’s prediction for oil rising on March 2 is 99%; probabilities for reaching $80, $90, $100, $110 by end-March are 64%, 32%, 16%, 10%, respectively.

Images: Oil price rise probability on March 2; end-March price forecasts

(2) Gold benefits from rising geopolitical risks

As risks increase, funds tend to flow into traditional safe havens like gold. Spot gold has risen to about $5,350/oz. Market forecasts for gold by late June are optimistic: 85% chance of reaching $5,500, 77% for $5,700, 60% for $6,000, 44% for $6,200; less than 20% see it dropping below $4,200. The key is whether conflict de-escalates or intensifies inflation expectations. If conflict cools in weeks, gold may stabilize; if Hormuz risks persist and inflation rises, gold could rally further.

(3) Bitcoin in the short term remains a risk asset

Bitcoin’s typical response to geopolitical shocks is initial volatility, then debate over safe-haven status. The Polymarket odds for “BTC movement on 3/2” show high uncertainty. If Hormuz risks escalate, oil and inflation fears could push Bitcoin into a risk-off mode, with possible retracement or further decline. If conflict prolongs and sanctions tighten, Bitcoin might gain alternative safe-haven narratives.

Images: Bitcoin daily movement forecast; risk scenarios

2.3 International Political Analysis

In the short term, the U.S.-Iran conflict’s evolution depends on strategic choices. The U.S., having achieved “decapitation” strikes, has increased strategic leverage. Avoiding ground troops and endless war, the U.S. likely aims for “limited strikes and negotiations.” If conflict escalates, blocking Hormuz and raising oil prices, the Fed may tighten further, risking economic slowdown and political fallout. If Iran’s internal power struggles intensify, the conflict could escalate or de-escalate depending on internal cohesion.

Mainstream market view: Both sides will likely keep conflict limited, avoiding ground invasion, with a phased de-escalation over 2–3 weeks. As risk premiums decline, gold and oil may retreat from highs, and risk sentiment could improve.

However, key uncertainties remain:

1. Will Hormuz be effectively blocked?
2. Will the U.S. be drawn into ground conflict?
3. Iran’s internal power dynamics and leadership stability?

Overall, current market pricing assumes “limited conflict,” but tail risks remain, with geopolitical premiums likely to fluctuate in the coming weeks.

3. Potential Investment Opportunities

In the short term, global markets are likely to follow a “risk-off then recovery” pattern, but long-term uncertainties persist. According to Bloomberg models, since the start of the year, crude oil has risen about $11/barrel, with about $6 from geopolitical risk premiums and $5 from demand recovery, indicating elevated risk premiums. With Israel’s ongoing conflict, risk aversion may continue temporarily, favoring gold, oil, and bonds, while pressuring equities.

If tensions ease in 2–3 weeks, risk premiums could unwind, with oil retreating to $60–$70 and gold around $5,200. Still, structural demand from central banks for gold and ongoing geopolitical risks support long-term gold and oil as inflation hedges and geopolitical risk buffers. Over the longer term, increasing frequency and intensity of conflicts suggest energy security and currency stability will remain key concerns. From a strategic allocation perspective, gold and oil offer inflation protection and geopolitical risk hedging, making them suitable for medium- to long-term holdings.

Gate’s platform now offers perpetual contracts for XAUT/USDT and other precious metals, tokenized stocks, indices, commodities, enabling 24/7 trading to seize market opportunities.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Polymarket, https://polymarket.com/predictions/iran
• X, https://x.com/World_Data_A/status/1972567940223365134/photo/1
• Goldman Sachs, https://marquee.gs.com/welcome/home
• TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com

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