Ethereum (ETH) recovers with record OI: What is the market expecting?

Ethereum (ETH) broke above the $2,100 mark on Thursday trading, aligning with the widespread market recovery across the cryptocurrency space.

The rally of the largest altcoin in the market is accompanied by a surge in open interest (OI), which now stands at 13.43 million ETH — the highest since January 31. Since February 19, ETH’s OI has steadily increased, adding 1.2 million ETH in just two weeks. This development occurs amid the market recording $152 million in ETH liquidations over the past 24 hours, with short positions accounting for up to $129 million, according to data from Coinglass.

Open interest reflects the total value of unsettled derivative contracts. The rising indicator suggests investors are actively rebuilding their positions rather than staying on the sidelines.

ETH Open Contract Volume | Source: CoinglassHowever, market sentiment remains uncertain. ETH’s funding rate continues to fluctuate between negative and positive, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

In another notable development, ETH is approaching the on-chain average cost basis of investors (realized price) around $2,300. Historically, whenever prices near this level, the market often experiences short-term distribution pressure as some investors take profits at breakeven. However, if ETH can break through and sustain above $2,300, this level could transform into a significant support zone for the next trend.

ETH Realized Price | Source: CryptoQuantETH’s recovery also occurs amid improved risk appetite, following a report by The New York Times that Iranian intelligence agents have indirectly contacted U.S. intelligence agencies to propose a ceasefire agreement — a development that helps ease geopolitical tensions and boosts market sentiment.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Breaks Resistance at $2,108, Heading Toward 50-Day EMA

On the daily chart, ETH is oscillating around $2,150, signaling initial recovery signs. The short-term trend has slightly turned positive as the price remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) — which had been flat but is now beginning to rise, indicating a shift from correction to early recovery. However, the overall picture remains under pressure as the 50-day EMA, trending downward around $2,298, continues to act as a notable resistance.

The RSI stands at 53, crossing above the neutral threshold, suggesting increasing bullish momentum after the previous oversold condition. Nonetheless, the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) has moved deep into overbought territory near 91, implying the short-term rally may be somewhat “hot,” and any correction could be more of a technical pullback rather than a sharp decline.

ETH/USD Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewFrom a technical perspective, the $2,108 level is the nearest support — where the price converges with the upward-sloping 20-day EMA. Losing this level could see ETH retreat to around $1,741 before testing lower support at $1,524. On the upside, the first resistance is at $2,390, just below the 50-day EMA, serving as a critical test for the nascent rebound. Further targets include $2,746 and $3,411 if bulls maintain their dominance.

As long as ETH stays above $2,108, the short-term bullish structure remains intact. Conversely, a close below this level could weaken the recovery momentum and shift market focus back to lower support zones.