Bitcoin ETFs Extend 9-Day Win Streak, But On-Chain Spot Demand Remains Negative

Gate News message, April 27 — Bitcoin spot ETFs have extended their longest inflow streak since September 2025, recording nine consecutive days of inflows and bringing the total to approximately $2.1 billion. However, on-chain data suggests the rally may be driven more by leverage and liquidations than genuine spot demand.

For the week ending April 24, ETFs recorded $823.7 million in inflows, following two prior weeks of $996.4 million and $786.3 million respectively. BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge with $983 million in weekly inflows, marking its highest weekly performance in six months. On April 24 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs added $14.45 million to extend the 9-day streak.

Despite strong ETF demand, on-chain analytics reveal a troubling disconnect. According to Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, “Bitcoin is currently futures-driven. Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows.” Ju noted that historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover.

Liquidation data underscores the leverage factor. Since April 13, short liquidations have totaled roughly $2.8 billion compared to $1.8 billion in long liquidations, indicating bearish traders have been caught off guard. Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, stated that “recent price action suggests short liquidations have played a significant role in the rally, with open interest rising alongside price, which points to leverage contributing to the move.”

A meaningful portion of recent ETF inflows may stem from cash-and-carry trades, where institutions buy Bitcoin ETF shares while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral, meaning not all inflows should be viewed as outright bullish conviction. The negative funding rate, currently near historical lows, indicates investors are opening short positions, further suggesting the uptrend remains uncertain.

Options markets also signal caution. The 25-delta skew is negative, hovering between -2% and -5%, indicating investors are paying a premium for downside protection. Otychenko noted that “funding rates are near historical lows, while long-term holders are showing record levels of accumulation. One of these two groups is likely to be proven very wrong.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $77,800, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours but up roughly 3.5% over the past week. Prediction market data suggests a 75% probability that Bitcoin’s next move could propel it to $84,000 first, though short-term sentiment remains bearish with a 42% probability that BTC closes above $78,000 on Monday.