BitMine jumps 12% but hides risks! Short sellers squeeze to dominate the market; $21 is the key watershed

Gate News update: BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) shares surged 12% on March 31, 2026, closing at $19.78 and setting the largest single-day gain in recent history. The rally—combined with the positive news that B. Riley raised its price target to $33—briefly improved market sentiment, but structural risks have not been eliminated.

From derivatives data, this upswing looks more like a short squeeze than a push from new capital. The put/call options volume ratio fell sharply from 1.04 to 0.52, while open interest was largely unchanged, indicating that a large number of short positions were closed passively, driving the stock price higher without strong support from new long entries. This kind of move typically has limited follow-through; if shorts rebuild positions afterward, the rebound may face resistance.

On the fundamentals side, the company has recently increased its Ethereum holdings for five consecutive weeks, bringing total holdings to 4.73 million ETH, or about 3.92% of circulating supply. At the same time, its staking platform, MAVAN, has put about 67% of its assets into staking, with an estimated annualized return of up to $285 million. Combined with a short-term rebound in Ethereum prices, this is expected to provide support to the company’s balance sheet.

However, the capital flow indicator Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in negative territory, showing that institutional capital has not meaningfully returned; the current rally lacks long-term capital backing. From a technical perspective, BMNR is still constrained by a descending channel dating back to December 2025, and repeated attempts to break out have not succeeded.

In terms of key price levels, $21.22 is the trend confirmation point: if it holds effectively, it could open upside room to $24.56 and potentially higher ranges. Conversely, if it breaks below $19.46, it would imply that rebound momentum has faded, increasing the risk of a further move down to $17.88.

In the short term, BMNR’s price action will be highly dependent on Ethereum’s price momentum and expectations for staking yields. But if sustained capital inflows are lacking, the current rebound may still be only a temporary repair phase.