HTX DeepThink: The expectation of interest rate cuts has failed, and the crypto market has entered a repricing moment under the triple pressure of macro factors.

BlockBeats news, on March 27, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the impact of macro variables on the cryptocurrency market has evolved from “loose expectations driving risk appetite” to a threefold suppression framework of “high rates for longer + energy shocks + liquidity contraction.” Although Jerome Powell’s latest statements formally retain the median forecast for one rate cut this year, the core signal is much clearer: the policy will not shift to easing until inflation shows a sustained and credible decline. The market has completed the first round of rapid repricing, with short-term rates remaining high and even showing upward stickiness, meaning that the previous trading logic based on “early rate cuts” has basically failed. For the cryptocurrency market, this directly weakens the valuation anchor, leading to more significant valuation compression pressures for high beta assets, AI narrative tokens, and assets without cash flow support.

The situation in the Middle East is disrupting the energy market, with rising oil prices increasing “secondary inflation” risks, limiting global liquidity, compressing risk budgets for households and institutions, and prolonging the high rate cycle, forming systemic pressure on risk assets. BTC can benefit from fiat credit and sovereign risk narratives in extreme cases, but under normal conditions, its price still relies on USD liquidity, showing a “downside resistance rather than upside” structure in the short term. Although the Bank of Japan remains inactive, the exit from ultra-loose policy is clear, and yen volatility may amplify global carry trade pressures. Attention should be paid to U.S. inflation employment data and Bank of Japan policy signals, as their resonance will drive “liquidity contraction + increased volatility.” In terms of trading structure, the market has entered a “light beta, heavy structure” phase: BTC combines liquidity and macro narrative advantages, ETH relies on on-chain activity and capital flow recovery, while most altcoins are in a valuation repricing cycle, with short-term strategies waiting for repricing opportunities after the macro path becomes clear.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.