Whales are aggressively buying Bitcoin while retail investors are sitting on the sidelines.

Key holders of Bitcoin (BTC) are quietly increasing their positions, despite the market facing strong volatility and significant macroeconomic uncertainty.

According to data from Santiment, the group of wallets holding between 10 BTC and 10,000 BTC — commonly referred to as “whales” and “sharks” — has accumulated an additional total of 61,568 BTC over the past month.

Whale Accumulation Amid Volatility

This increase corresponds to 0.45% of the total holdings, reflecting the sustained confidence of large holders even as price movements remain volatile. Notably, the accumulation process occurs against a backdrop of market influence from geopolitical instability.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East have previously acted as a catalyst supporting Bitcoin. However, with the conflict showing no signs of cooling, risk-averse sentiment has returned, hindering BTC’s bullish momentum in recent sessions.

Nonetheless, Santiment views the continued accumulation by large holders as a “positive signal, opening up the possibility for a breakout from the sideways range in the near future.”

This viewpoint is reinforced by on-chain data from CryptoQuant. The amount of Bitcoin stored on centralized exchanges has decreased to around 2.7 million BTC — the lowest level since 2019.

The amount of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges is decreasing | Source: CryptoQuantThis trend often implies bullish sentiment, as selling pressure diminishes and capital tends to shift towards long-term storage through cold wallets.

FOMO from Retail Investors Remains a Barrier

However, the picture is not entirely positive. Santiment notes that, apart from macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, the prolonged excitement of retail investors continues to weaken the bullish outlook.

Accumulation of Bitcoin Whales and Retail Investors | Source: X/SantimentSpecifically, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have increased their balances by 0.42% during the same period — nearly equivalent to the accumulation rate of whales. This is seen as a notable barrier.

According to Santiment, the ideal scenario to confirm a bullish cycle typically occurs when large wallets continue to accumulate, while retail investors sell off — a pattern that has proven reliable historically.

In the current context, the fact that both groups are buying in suggests that the market has yet to undergo the necessary psychological “reset” phase. If retail inflows begin to weaken while whales continue to accumulate, the conditions for a strong breakout will gradually be reinforced.