Prediction Market

Hong Kong's government has suspended its basketball betting project due to concerns over the rapid growth of prediction markets linked to illegal gambling. With monthly trading volumes rising dramatically, authorities aim to enhance public education and collaborate on measures against gambling.

Hong Kong has suspended the legalization of basketball betting this week, while also planning to launch a study to assess the impact of prediction markets in Hong Kong and their level of adoption. Macie Mak, Commissioner for Home and Youth Affairs in Hong Kong, said that the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has grown from less than $100 million two years ago to more than $13 billion last year, with about 40% related to sports.

Polymarket has initiated an audit of its Builders Program after finding third-party tools that may facilitate insider trading by mimicking successful trades. The review follows scrutiny over potential market abuse linked to these apps.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has appealed a ruling by the state of Nevada banning its event contracts, and the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals held oral arguments on April 17, but did not issue an immediate decision after the hearing. The core dispute in the case is whether Kalshi’s event contracts are “swap agreements” that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), or whether they must be regulated by state-level activity under gambling licensing regimes. Multiple legal experts predict that the case may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.

Gate News message, latest data shows the market share distribution among prediction market platforms. Kalshi leads with 37.8% market share, followed by Polymarket at 35.3%. Opinion Labs xyz holds 14.4%, Predict dot fun accounts for 8.5%, and Crypto Com represents 2.5% of the market.

A study by Wolfe Research reveals that anonymous bettors on the Polymarket platform may predict corporate earnings more accurately than Wall Street analysts, with significant accuracy for both optimistic and pessimistic bets. Despite potential, these prediction markets account for a small trading volume.

Kalshi is introducing a parental portal for identity verification and selfie authentication to prevent minors from bypassing age restrictions. This follows scrutiny over its compliance with prediction market regulations amid ongoing lawsuits.

Bernstein's report forecasts prediction market trading volume will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity, blockchain support, and mainstream integration. Industry revenue is expected to rise from $400 million to $10.8 billion, with retail brokerages gaining a competitive edge.

A trader known as epsteinfiles has placed a $12,300 bet with Lookonchain, predicting that MicroStrategy will hold over 1 million BTC by December 31, 2026, with a flawless track record in past bets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from bringing charges against prediction market platform Kalshi under gambling laws, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi, meanwhile, insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also voiced support for prediction markets.

21Shares updates its Hyperliquid ETF filing, confirming the stock ticker THYP, which is seen as an adjustment in response to SEC comments. This move increases the likelihood of the ETF being listed. Compared with Bitwise’s HYPE ETF, the latter has already announced a 0.67% management fee, one of the highest in the market. The Hyperliquid platform’s strong fundamentals attract attention, but given the uncertainty around inflows of meme-coin ETF funds, market demand still needs to be watched.

A major centralized exchange has partnered with High Roller Technologies to provide prediction market services in the U.S. Analysts project significant growth in this sector, although it faces regulatory challenges.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona may not rely on its gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions by states on prediction markets have differed, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona cannot use its gambling laws to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi insists that its business is financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary across states, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is prohibited from relying on its gambling laws to prosecute prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.

In brief A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks. An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard. The

Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.