Prediction Market

Author: Frank, PANews In the early morning of February 28, 2026, the global geopolitical landscape was shaken as the Iran-U.S. conflict reignited. This black swan event that altered the geopolitical pattern triggered intense chain reactions in the physical world, and similarly caused a chaotic capital vortex in the digital realm. On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, a contract titled “Will Khamenei step down as Iran’s Supreme Leader before February 28?” has accumulated a trading volume of $81.63 million. As the news of the physical world’s death was gradually confirmed, the settlement of this massive smart contract faced severe paralysis and controversy. Both Yes proposals were rejected twice, and the market was forced into the final arbitration stage of the UMA oracle. This dispute once again sparked reflections on the judgment of prediction markets, and multiple addresses were exposed, suspected of being insider addresses that seized over $1 million in profits.

ChainCatcher Message: The probability of Opinion on Polymarket issuing tokens on March 5th has risen to 95.5%. One day after the launch of OPN, the probability of FDV surpassing $250 million is temporarily reported at 94%, and the probability of surpassing $500 million is temporarily reported at 67%.

With the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, related prediction markets have sparked criticism in U.S. politics, with some senators calling for restrictions on contracts related to individual deaths. Trading volume has surged significantly, and platforms are facing regulatory ambiguities and user doubts, while regulators may tighten scrutiny. The legality and morality of prediction markets will become new issues.

After Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, the prediction market Kalshi refunded $2.2 million due to contract settlement disputes, as its original intention was to avoid profiting from death events. This incident has prompted US lawmakers to call for a thorough investigation of war-related contracts and question the morality and fairness of the market. Other platforms like Polymarket are also facing controversy over similar issues.

On February 28th, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, shaking Middle Eastern geopolitics. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi quickly emerged, with traders betting on related events and trading volumes surging. However, this phenomenon also raised questions about moral boundaries, especially the risks of insider trading and market manipulation. Kalshi decided not to profit from the death event to uphold ethical standards, while Polymarket attracted significant funds due to its high anonymity. Overall, this war has exposed the double-edged nature of prediction markets, indicating the need for stricter regulation in the future.

Kalshi announces the activation of the "Death Exemption Clause" to handle the Hamini market, refunding all fees and settling at the last transaction price before death. This has sparked some user backlash, who believe that restricting profits is unfair. Meanwhile, Polymarket faces insider trading allegations, with six traders profiting approximately $1 million before the Iran airstrike. The market is under widespread scrutiny.

Polymarket experienced abnormal betting before the US-Iran airstrikes, with six new wallets totaling a profit of $1.2 million, raising concerns about insider trading and increasing global regulatory pressure. U.S. Congress members have proposed legislation to ban officials from participating in prediction markets, and many countries consider them illegal gambling. The accuracy of prediction markets and their potential ethical issues have become hot topics of discussion.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Polygon's official X account announced that February's POL burn amount reached a record high, with a total of 28.2 million POL burned. Earlier reports indicate that February's trading volume for Polymarket, the most important application in the Polygon ecosystem and a prediction market, also hit a historic high.

During the global financial market closure, over $529 million in funds flooded into the prediction market, with investors betting on a US-Israel airstrike on Iran. Six new accounts made precise bets before the airstrike and profited $1.2 million, triggering insider trading allegations. American lawmakers condemned such behavior and plan to introduce legislation to ban it. The CFTC has also issued a warning, emphasizing that such transactions may be illegal.

Odaily Planet Daily reports that according to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader named majorexploiter spent $4.53 million USDC nine hours ago betting on Arsenal Football Club to win on March 1, 2026, and earned a profit of $2.42 million. Data shows that within less than 3 days, he placed 3 consecutive related bets, all of which were profitable, with a total profit of approximately $3.67 million.

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded from weekend lows, trading around $66,700 on March 2. A mysterious account made precise bets on a U.S. airstrike against Iran, while the Trump camp faces allegations of "insider trading." Vitalik outlined Ethereum's execution layer roadmap, focusing on two major changes: state trees and virtual machines.

After the US and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iran, the prediction market platform Polymarket reached a new trading volume high, hitting $478 million in a single day, with political markets accounting for $220 million. Bubblemaps discovered at least six addresses profiting approximately $1.2 million, raising concerns about insider trading. Meanwhile, competitor Kalshi faced criticism for involving contracts related to Hamedani, despite its CEO claiming the contracts comply with CFTC regulations, the company is facing ethical challenges.

Due to the global financial markets being closed, investors flooded into prediction markets and decentralized exchanges, attempting to bet on the impact of the US and Israel's attack on Iran. This subsequently sparked a public outcry, accusing insiders of profiting from insider information. Kalshi's CEO responded by saying they would refund the fees, but the user dissatisfaction has not been fully alleviated.

Recently, the conflict between the United States and Iran has intensified, leading to a surge in trading volume on Polymarket. Some newly created accounts successfully placed bets and made millions in profit before the airstrikes, raising concerns about insider trading. This incident highlights the regulatory gray area in prediction markets, the urgent need to address information asymmetry issues, and presents new challenges to the financial markets.

A Polymarket trader gained $2.35M in one month through disciplined short-term Bitcoin bets, leveraging high-stakes strategies and consistent wins, with individual trades yielding significant profits.

A trader has reportedly made over $2.3M in one month on Polymarket by betting on Bitcoin's price movements, controlling three wallets. This notable profit arises amid a recent Bitcoin surge to $68K, boosting investor confidence in the market.

_Record Iran strike bets drive $469M volume on Polymarket, raising insider wallet and market integrity concerns._ Rising tensions in the Middle East triggered record activity on prediction markets. Polymarket posted its highest single-day volume as traders rushed to price in the Iran strikes.

BlockBeats News, March 1st, Polymarket's prediction that "Bitcoin will fall to $50,000 this year" has decreased to 62%. Additionally, the probability of BTC rising to $80,000 within the year is currently 72%, and the probability of rising to $90,000 is currently 47%.