January 12 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $91,334 (as of 09:20 on January 12)

Short-term Outlook: Bullish. Technical indicators show BTC breaking above the upper Bollinger Band, multi-timeframe moving averages aligned bullishly, MACD histogram turning positive, and upward momentum. Derivatives market open interest increased by 0.63%, with $12.36 million in short liquidations, indicating short-squeeze pressure. Social sentiment is boosted by Trump’s pledge of the US holding BTC permanently and the Strategic Reserves Act, leading to a generally optimistic market expectation.

Key Support Levels: $90,444 (1-hour Bollinger lower band), $90,239 (4-hour Bollinger lower band), $89,809 (daily middle band)

Key Resistance Levels: $91,562 (1-hour 200-MA), $91,610 (4-hour 50-MA), $93,896 (daily upper Bollinger band)

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe Indicators

1-Hour Level

• RSI 66.17, approaching overbought but not yet overheated
• MACD golden cross, histogram at 48.35 indicating strong bullish momentum
• Price at $91,494 breaking above the upper Bollinger Band at $91,319, short-term momentum strong
• Above EMA(12) 90,974, EMA(26) 90,870, EMA(50) 90,830, confirming short-term uptrend

4-Hour Level

• RSI 57.10, neutral leaning bullish
• MACD histogram at 102.18 turning positive from negative, potential bullish reversal signal
• Price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band at $91,339, volatility expanding
• Above EMA(12) 90,898 and EMA(50) 90,893 but below EMA(26) 90,978, overall bullish bias

Daily Level

• RSI 55.26, balanced state
• MACD histogram at 202.35, sustained bullish trend
• Price near the daily middle band at $89,809, in a wide-range consolidation zone
• Above EMA(12) 90,823 and EMA(26) 90,297, short-term moving averages provide support

Support and Resistance

Support Zones

• First Support: $90,444 (1-hour Bollinger lower band)
• Second Support: $90,239 (4-hour Bollinger lower band)
• Third Support: $89,809 (daily middle band)
• Strong Support: $85,723 (daily Bollinger lower band)

Resistance Zones

• First Resistance: $91,562 (1-hour 200-MA)
• Second Resistance: $91,610 (4-hour 50-MA)
• Third Resistance: $93,896 (daily upper Bollinger band)
• Options Max Pain Point: $91,000

Derivatives Market

Open Interest and Funding Rates

• Futures open interest at $61.71B, up 0.63% in 24 hours, with long positions continuing to build
• Funding rate positive (Binance 0.0032%), longs paying shorts, indicating market sentiment leaning bullish but with over-leverage risk
• Options open interest at $32.38B, down 0.6%, with max pain concentrated around $91,000

Liquidation Data

• Total liquidations in 24 hours: $18.37 million, with $12.36 million in short liquidations far exceeding $6.01 million in longs
• Liquidation risk map shows: at $89,913 below, total long liquidation risk is $345.9 million; at $91,755 above, total short liquidation risk is $81.9 million
• Asymmetric liquidation distribution, greater risk of downside break than resistance breach

On-Chain Data

Exchange Flows

• Net inflow of 2,475 BTC on January 11 (inflow of 25,064 BTC, outflow of 22,589 BTC), indicating short-term selling pressure
• Exchange reserves decreased from 2,751,545 BTC on January 1 to 2,749,690 BTC on January 11
• 30-day trend: reserves continuously declining from 2,767,745 BTC on December 30, suggesting whale accumulation of coins

Market Data

• Market Cap: $1.82 trillion
• 24-hour trading volume: $19.6 billion (up 60.14%)
• Circulating supply: 19,974,696 BTC
• Price fluctuation range: $90,245 - $91,575 (1.47% volatility)

Social Sentiment

Bullish Signals

• Trump’s pledge of the US holding BTC permanently, positive policy signal
• US lawmakers proposing the Strategic BTC Reserves Act, including allowing taxes to be paid in BTC and eliminating capital gains tax on holdings
• Strong capital inflows into key ETF dates, with institutions like Morgan Stanley submitting new BTC product applications
• Analysts predict parabolic rise driven by scarcity and institutional adoption

Bearish Signals

• Cycle forecasts warn of potential pullbacks, mentioning bull trap risks and historical pattern repeats
• Macro uncertainties include rising risk aversion and cooling ETF capital flows
• BTC market share shows early weakness, possibly indicating capital rotation
• Recent outflows from some major ETF products

Short-term Forecast (Next 24 Hours)

Baseline Scenario (Probability 60%): Continue upward to $92,000-$93,000 zone

• Technical: Price breaks multiple resistance levels, MACD momentum strong, short-term MA support intact
• Derivatives: Short liquidations push prices higher, open interest growth shows bullish confidence
• Catalysts: Continued policy favorable developments, market sentiment leaning bullish

Pullback Scenario (Probability 30%): Retrace to support around $90,500

• Technical: 1-hour RSI 66.17 nearing overbought, possible technical correction
• Derivatives: Positive funding rate indicates over-leverage, risk of forced liquidations
• Risks: If breaking below $90,444 support, could trigger $345.9 million in long liquidations chain

Breakout Scenario (Probability 10%): Direct challenge to daily upper Bollinger band at $93,896

• Requires sustained volume increase (current $19.6 billion, up 60%)
• Needs to break above $91,610 resistance and hold
• On-chain data support: further exchange reserve decline

Trading Suggestions

• Long positions: Consider entering around $90,500-$90,800, targeting $92,000-$93,000, with stop-loss at $90,200
• Short positions: Not recommended for now; wait for overbought signals above $93,500
• Focus points: Whether $91,610 can be effectively broken, changes in exchange net flows, and whether funding rates decline