Overall Environment (Applicable to BTC & ETH): The Federal Reserve is transitioning from high interest rates to easing, with the market's core contradiction being "the speed of inflation decline" vs "interest rate cut expectations in pace and magnitude." US stocks remain in a relatively high valuation zone, with risk assets generally showing a risk appetite recovery but not extreme greed. Institutional funds' allocation to BTC remains mainly as "digital gold / alternative asset after debt reduction," while ETH leans more towards technology growth + production factors (land/computing power).

Macroeconomic Correlation:
BTC remains significantly sensitive inversely to the US Dollar Index DXY and US Treasury yields: DXY retreat and real interest rates weakening → favorable for BTC and ETH to maintain a medium-term bullish structure. If inflation unexpectedly rises or the Fed re-initiates hawkish rhetoric, both BTC/ETH could quickly give back gains.

On-Chain Dynamics (On-Chain)
BTC On-Chain Structure (Directional Assessment): Active addresses remain slightly above historical median, with no extreme bubble activity, indicating that speculative sentiment has improved but is not out of control. Long-term holder (LTH) supply share remains relatively high but shows small distribution, suggesting some old wallets are reducing positions at high levels, but the main trend remains "strong hands dominate."
Exchange Net Flows: Neutral leaning slightly outflow, indicating movement to cold wallets/long-term holdings → mid-term bullish; if large net inflows occur consecutively in the future, caution for potential top signals is advised.
ETH On-Chain Structure (Directional Assessment): Staking ratio remains high and slowly rising, reducing circulating supply and providing some support for price. DeFi TVL has steadily recovered after the last decline but has not yet returned to historical peaks, indicating mild risk appetite. L2 and Rollup activity continues to increase, gas fee median remains moderate, and on-chain usage is becoming more "practical rather than purely speculative."

Technical Structure (Technical)
The following ranges are for structural and strategic reference, not precise quotes. Please fine-tune based on the latest prices from your trading platform.

BTC Technical Structure:
Daily trend: Price is above the 200-day moving average, still in a medium-term bullish trend. The previous high area forms an important resistance zone:
- Resistance Zone 1 (above): near previous high
- Resistance Zone 2: if broken with volume, could open a new trend space.
Support zones:
- Support Zone 1: recent consolidation lower boundary near the 50-day moving average
- Support Zone 2: further below, overlapping with the 200-day moving average and previous breakout platform, serving as structural defense.
Current pattern suggests that if the price oscillates below resistance zones, it is a high-level consolidation within a bullish trend; a volume breakout and stabilization above resistance for several days could signal the start of a new upward wave. If support Zone 1 is broken with increased volume, watch for a retest of Support Zone 2.

ETH Technical Structure:
Same daily trend above the 200-day moving average, but with a weaker slope than BTC, indicating slightly lower relative strength.
Key Resistance:
- Resistance Zone 1: previous dense daily trading area and high
- Resistance Zone 2: previous significant decline platform before a sharp drop
Key Support:
- Support Zone 1: lower boundary of current consolidation platform
- Support Zone 2: further below, overlapping with the 200-day moving average and previous lows.
Structural points: ETH tends to follow BTC's direction with amplified beta. If BTC breaks through previous highs strongly, ETH is likely to rally and attempt to challenge its resistance zones. If BTC retraces to Support Zone 2, ETH may show a deeper correction, so leverage should be cautious.

Risk Signals (Risk):
1. Common Risks:
- Macro uncertainties, unexpected inflation/employment data → Fed rate hike expectations re-emerge → risk assets under pressure.
- Policy and regulation: tightening policies by the US/EU on exchanges, stablecoins, or ETH staking activities.
2. Market Structural Risks:
- High leverage long positions: sustained positive funding rates and high levels may trigger a large downward shadow or waterfall liquidation.
- Futures positions hitting new highs but with stagnant volume → inflated leverage, beware of "longs liquidating longs."
3. On-Chain and Technical Risks (ETH bias):
- Black swan events in major DeFi protocols or cross-chain bridges could cause short-term liquidity crises and selling pressure on ETH.

Strategy Modeling (Quant):
Below is a schematic of typical range and position control frameworks, to be adjusted based on your actual account size and risk tolerance.

BTC Short-Medium Term Strategy Framework:
Timeframe: 4H–1D, recommended style: trend following + phased retracements.
Bullish approach:
- Range A (near Support Zone 1): staggered building, total position not exceeding 20–30% of capital; stop-loss below Support Zone 1 upon confirmed breakdown.
- Range B (breakout above Resistance Zone 1 with volume): follow breakout, add 10–20%; use trailing stop-loss (e.g., recent 3–5 day lows or ATR).
Backtest assumptions (typical trend strategy):
- Daily breakout of previous high and stabilization for 3–5 days.
- Historical success rate in BTC: about 45–55%, profit/loss ratio: about 1:2 – 1:3.
- Key: strict stop-loss discipline and avoiding contrarian top-fishing.

ETH Short-Medium Term Strategy Framework:
Timeframe: 4H–1D, style: follow BTC direction + relative strength switching.
- When BTC is in its support-resistance central zone and ETH/BTC is bottoming and rising, consider phased entries near Support Zone 1, with total positions not exceeding 15–25%.
- If ETH/BTC breaks below Support Zone 1 and hits new short-term lows, reduce positions.

Portfolio Suggestions:
- Conservative: BTC : ETH ≈ 2 : 1
- Aggressive: BTC : ETH ≈ 1 : 1 or favoring the currently stronger side (adjust dynamically).

Technical Indicators (MACD, RSI):
> Below is a professional framework for daily MACD and RSI for BTC & ETH, for reference in your chart analysis.

BTC: MACD + RSI Framework
- MACD (Daily):
DIF > DEA and above zero → healthy bullish trend;
If price hits new high but MACD histogram shortens and DIF does not reach new high → momentum divergence, caution for correction.
- RSI (Daily): 40–60 oscillation → trend consolidation;
Near 60–70 suggests a relatively strong trend, consider dips to 5–10 day MA for bullish opportunities;
Above 70 and near resistance → avoid chasing aggressively.
Practical reference:
1. Bullish zone: MACD above zero with golden cross + RSI 60–70
2. Risk zone:
Price hits new high but MACD and RSI do not → divergence;
RSI > 70 with volume increase → beware of short-term pullback.

ETH: MACD + RSI Framework
- MACD (Daily):
Often shows "following BTC but with larger volatility": if BTC MACD remains above zero, ETH may show a dead cross but not break key support, indicating consolidation rather than trend reversal.
- RSI (Daily):
50 as a strength indicator:
- Long-term above 50 → relatively strong;
- Long-term below 50 → mainly reducing positions on rebounds.
- Practical reference:
When BTC’s MACD and RSI remain bullish, but ETH’s MACD shows a brief dead cross without breaking Support Zone 1, consider ETH as a relative correction opportunity, with small positions and using BTC trend as risk control.
If both BTC and ETH show: daily MACD dead cross + RSI below 50 for several days → signal of increased phase risk, overall position reduction is advised.

Summary (Overall Conclusion):
Direction and Operation Tendencies:
- Medium-term: Both BTC & ETH remain in a bullish structure above the 200-day moving average, with the macro environment not showing a significant reversal; the medium-long-term upward logic persists.
- Short to medium-term: Avoid emotional chasing at resistance zones; wait for retracements to support or confirmed breakouts before following.
Risk Management:
- Keep single-asset positions within 20–30%, avoid high leverage;
- Monitor macro data and regulatory developments closely; if daily MACD/RSI weaken simultaneously, proactively reduce positions.