January 14 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price (: $3,331.75 as of 10:00 on January 14th )

Short-term Outlook: Slightly bullish. The MACD indicator shows bullish signals on both daily and 4-hour charts. Futures open interest increased by 7.89% over 24 hours to $42.31 billion, and the funding rate is positive, indicating market sentiment leaning towards bullish. However, caution is advised as the 4-hour RSI has reached 80.56 in overbought territory, posing a short-term technical correction risk.

Key Support Levels:

• Major support: $3,054.65 ( 7-day Donchian lower band )
• Secondary support: $3,058.25 ( 50-day moving average )

Key Resistance Levels:

• Major resistance: $3,367.79 ( 7-day Donchian upper band )
• Secondary resistance: $3,641.59 ( 200-day moving average )

Price Movement Review

In the past 24 hours, ETH demonstrated strong upward momentum, rising from $3,129.78 at 11:00 on January 13th to $3,331.75 at 02:00 on January 14th, a 6.46% increase. The price opened around $3,100 on January 13th, reached a high of $3,370, and closed near $3,330, with a daily gain of 7.43%.

Technical Indicator Analysis

Technical Highlights:

• Daily RSI at 65.99 remains in healthy bullish zone, not overbought
• 4-hour RSI at 80.56 has entered overbought territory, up from 49.20 six periods ago, indicating recent rapid gains
• MACD shows golden cross on both timeframes, with expanding histogram, strong momentum
• Price has broken above the 50-day MA ($3,058.25) but remains below the 200-day MA ($3,641.59)

Market Structure Analysis

On-chain Data:

• Exchange net outflows on January 12 and 13 were 97,326.81 ETH and 42,967.57 ETH respectively, indicating continuous withdrawal of funds from exchanges, reflecting investor holding behavior

Derivatives Market:

• Futures open interest increased by 7.89% over 24 hours to $42.31 billion, suggesting increased market participation
• Major exchanges like Binance have a funding rate of 0.01%, indicating strong bullish sentiment among traders

Market Outlook

1-3 Day Short-term Trend: Slightly bullish, but watch for correction risks

Bullish Factors:

• MACD across two cycles shows upward resonance
• Futures open interest and funding rates support bullish sentiment
• On-chain net outflows indicate accumulation behavior

Risk Alerts:

• 4-hour RSI is severely overbought, potential for short-term profit-taking
• Price is approaching resistance at $3,367.79; a breakout requires volume confirmation
• Daily OBV is at -2,989,427.79, showing divergence from price action, caution needed for possible shift in capital flow

Trading Strategy Reference:

• If a pullback occurs to the support zone around $3,058 with volume support, consider it a buying opportunity
• Break above $3,367.79 resistance and confirm stability could target $3,641.59
• Short-term traders should be cautious of volatility caused by the overbought 4-hour RSI