January 15 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $96,482 (as of the morning of January 15)

Short-term Outlook: Neutral to bullish, technical indicators show 4-hour and daily MACD in strong bullish momentum, RSI at 69.01 and 67.74 indicating sustained upward energy. Price has stabilized above all short-term moving averages but is approaching the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart, suggesting a short-term correction or consolidation may be needed. If key support levels hold within the next 24-48 hours, a breakout toward $97,500-$98,000 is likely (probability 60%); failure to hold support could lead to a retest of $95,000 (probability 40%).

Key Supports: $96,447 (recent support, corresponding to $54.89M liquidation cluster), $96,243 (secondary support, with total long liquidations of $105.96M), $95,000-$95,500 (strong support zone, with over $1 billion in long liquidations, resonating with the lower band of the 1-hour Bollinger Bands).

Key Resistances: $96,740 (daily Bollinger Band upper), $97,800-$98,000 (concentrated short liquidations, totaling $150M), $106,002 (daily 200 MA, long-term resistance).

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe structural features

The 1-hour price action is around 96,454, near the middle of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a short-term consolidation. The 4-hour price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, reflecting good trend continuation. The daily chart approaches the upper Bollinger Band (96,740), indicating strong upward momentum but nearing overbought levels.

Core Technical Indicators

Momentum Indicators: RSI(14) at 56.65 (1-hour), 69.01 (4-hour), and 67.74 (daily). The 4-hour and daily RSI are close to overbought but not yet overextended, supporting potential for further short-term gains.

MACD Divergence: The 1-hour histogram shows a weak divergence at -104.58, with the fast line below the slow line, signaling a short-term correction. The 4-hour and daily histograms are +381.83 and +695.46 respectively, indicating strong bullish momentum in mid-term.

Moving Averages Alignment: Price is well above EMA(12), EMA(26), and SMA(50), forming a classic bullish alignment, but remains below the daily SMA(200) at 106,001.77, indicating the long-term trend has not yet fully turned.

Bollinger Band Channel Analysis

The price nearing the daily upper Bollinger Band suggests volatility expansion is at its limit, and historical patterns indicate this position often triggers profit-taking or a breakout acceleration.

Liquidation Risk Distribution

Based on heatmap data, long liquidation clusters are concentrated between 96,000 and 95,000, with over $1 billion in exposure, forming a strong magnetic support zone. Short liquidations are concentrated between 97,800 and 98,000, with total short positions around $150M. A breakout above this zone could trigger chain stop-losses, pushing prices higher.

On-chain and Capital Flows

Exchange Liquidity Changes

Over the past 7 days, data shows 5 days of net outflows, with a single-day net outflow of -18,696 BTC on January 14, the largest recent outflow. Continuous outflows reflect whales actively transferring coins to cold wallets for accumulation, reducing circulating supply on exchanges and providing support to the price.

Market Fundamentals

• Market Cap: $1.927 trillion
• Circulating Supply: 19,975,943 BTC
• 24-hour Trading Volume: $6.73-6.79 billion
• 24-hour Price Range: $94,621-$97,705
• 24-hour Change: +1.44%

Derivatives Market Dynamics

Open Interest: Total open interest is $65.54 billion, up 2.72% in 24 hours, indicating moderate increase in leverage participation.

Funding Rate Divergence: Binance funding rate is +0.00172% (positive), while Bybit is -0.000233% (negative). The long-short leverage game is balanced, with no signs of crowded positions on either side.

Market Sentiment and Narrative

Macro Drivers

US CPI data shows YoY 2.7%, core CPI 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, reinforcing market expectations for rate cuts and boosting risk assets.

Institutional Behavior Signals

• After $6 billion outflow from spot BTC ETFs, the market has completed a shakeout, clearing leveraged positions and establishing solid support at $86,000.
• Continuous accumulation of BTC by Tether is seen as a positive signal of corporate hoarding.
• Harvard University has increased its BTC ETF allocation to the top of its investment portfolio, indicating deeper institutional adoption.

Regulatory Outlook

Market attention is on the Clarity Act legislation for digital assets. Although Senate review has been delayed to late January, the overall expectation of clearer regulation supports market confidence. The lifting of spot ETF restrictions may attract conservative investors and accelerate institutional allocations.

Social Media Sentiment

Mainstream community narratives are bullish, discussing technical patterns like “3-day bullish divergence confirmed” and “historical cycle breakthroughs may trigger upward moves.” Prominent analysts emphasize ignoring short-term FUD and focusing on long-term holding during institutional inflow windows. The ongoing fermentation of inverse indicator signals and some KOLs turning bearish are interpreted as buy signals.

Overall Assessment

Upside Path (60% probability): If support at 96,447 holds, combined with strong bullish MACD signals on 4-hour and daily charts and institutional inflows, the price could continue breaking through resistance zones at 97,500-98,000, triggering short liquidations and pushing higher.

Downside Path (40% probability): The 1-hour MACD divergence combined with the daily chart approaching overbought levels near the Bollinger upper band suggests that if support at 96,447 fails, it could trigger long stop-losses, leading to a retest of the strong support zone at 95,000 for consolidation.

Key Variables: Whether exchange net outflows can be sustained, if derivatives funding rates shift to crowded long positions, and the strength of macro rate cut expectations will determine the short-term direction. Currently, technical and sentiment signals are aligned upward, but profit-taking pressure remains a concern.