#美联储政策与货币政策 Seeing the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, my first reaction was — this chess game is getting more and more complicated.

Among the 19 policymakers, 6 insist that interest rates should remain at 3.9% by the end of 2025. What does this mean? It suggests that the story of rate cuts might be on hold. The proposal to cut rates by 25 basis points received 3 dissenting votes, indicating significant internal disagreement, to the point that Powell had to come out and say "people hold strongly differing views." This statement actually reflects uncertainty about the policy direction.

I've experienced too many scenarios where policy changes cut through the market. The key detail is — the debate among officials isn't about whether to cut rates, but **when to cut and by how much**. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since 2021; at the same time, consumer price increases were below expectations. These two signals contradict each other, and both the market and policymakers are stuck in a deadlock over "who is more dangerous."

Usually, the most dangerous time is when such disagreements are entrenched. Once data shifts in a certain direction, policy can reverse quickly, and the most vulnerable to being caught in the reversal are those who act prematurely. My advice is: don't be tempted by the expectation of "possible rate cuts," and don't blindly short. The safest approach now is to observe and wait for concrete signals before the Fed actually moves. The secret to surviving on-chain is — in uncertain times, better to miss out than to bet wrong.