Post-Christmas Adjustment Market: Liquidity Drying Up Indicates a Turning Point in the Crypto Market

The cryptocurrency market is currently in a state where potentially dangerous macro risks are blocked. Since the Christmas holiday, a rapid decline in liquidity has highlighted significant changes in market structure.

Current Market Snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $92.78K, up +1.52% over the past 7 days. It accounts for 56.46% of the entire market, with the total crypto asset market capitalization reaching $2.95 trillion. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) has increased by +2.13% over 7 days, and Solana (SOL) has adjusted with a -5.59% decline.

The market cap of stablecoins has shrunk to $318.4 billion, recording a -0.28% decrease over the past 7 days. USDT still holds over 60% of the market share.

Market Vulnerabilities Revealed During the Christmas Rally

Around Christmas Eve on December 24, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop of $2,300 within 45 minutes, liquidating over $66 million in leveraged positions. This was not merely a correction but a clear demonstration of market fragility in an environment with thin liquidity.

• Institutional Withdrawals: Physical BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $589 million, and physical ETH ETFs experienced a net outflow of $80.3 million. Pre-holiday fund withdrawals drained the market’s cushion.
• Technical Warnings: BTC remains within a core range of $83,000–$89,000, ETH is trading between $2,750–$3,050, and SOL’s resilience at $115–$130 is under scrutiny.

Fundamental Shift in Market Structure Toward 2026

The once-prevailing “4-year cycle theory” is no longer applicable. The crypto market is shifting from regulatory peripheralization to integration into mainstream capital markets. The leadership is moving from early miner dominance to large institutional investors on Wall Street.

Macro Environment Duality:

As a risk factor, from a historical cycle perspective, the traditional bear market phase has already arrived. On the other hand, positive factors include the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates, ongoing global liquidity supply, and continued support from listed companies and asset management institutions, providing structural support.

2026 Bear Market Bottom Price Prediction

Even if the market enters a correction phase, its duration is expected to be significantly shorter than in previous cycles. Structural buying support from institutional investors will likely form a strong defense line at the bottom.

Projected Bear Market Bottom Range: $50,000–$60,000

Recent Key Milestones

Token Unlock Schedule:

• Jupiter (JUP): 12/28, 53.47 million tokens (approximately $10.7 million) will be released
• Kamino (KMNO): 12/30, 230 million tokens (approximately $11.69 million) will be unlocked
• EigenLayer (EIGEN): 1/1, 36.82 million tokens scheduled for release
• Ethena (ENA): 1/2, 40.63 million tokens scheduled for unlock

Regulatory Environment Developments: From January 2026 onward, the Basel Committee’s crypto asset risk disclosure framework, Switzerland’s automatic tax exchange system, and the UK’s strict crypto tax regulations are expected to be implemented. Increased transparency in regulation will enhance market trust, while stricter compliance requirements will further accelerate institutional participation.

How to Read Market Sentiment Indicators

The current RSI index is 51.46 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 22 (fear zone), and the Altcoin Season Index is 37 (neutral). The market is clearly shifting from excessive optimism to a cautious mode.

The next turning point will depend on the timing of the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in January has fallen to 13.3%, but if inflationary pressures ease, liquidity conditions could dramatically improve, potentially reversing macro trends.

The market is now at a turning point where extreme optimism and pessimism coexist. The liquidity scarcity suggests that significant volatility could arrive quickly. 2026 will be a pivotal year for new market structures formed amid regulation and institutionalization.