On-chain data reveals the bear market dilemma: holders face dual pressures of realized losses and capital fatigue

According to the latest data analysis from Glassnode, the market is exhibiting typical characteristics of a prolonged bear market. The most intuitive manifestation is the simultaneous occurrence of two phenomena—significantly slowing capital inflow and long-term holders choosing to cut losses and exit.

This market structure has become especially evident recently. When prices fluctuate within a narrow range, investor sentiment is also being tested. Those who have held for a longer period, facing unrealized losses on paper, ultimately choose to cut losses. This not only reflects weak market liquidity but also reveals the psychological pressure accumulated by participants due to time costs.

From a market psychology perspective, the typical sign of a bear market is this cycle of “waiting → disappointment → escape.” The passage of time should strengthen confidence, but at this stage, it instead becomes a drain. The wave of long-term holders selling off precisely indicates a shift in market confidence—from steadfastness to abandonment. Meanwhile, the slowdown in capital inflow confirms that new participants are adopting a wait-and-see attitude toward this market.

Glassnode’s observed data indicates that this is a typical symptom of a bear market—insufficient willingness for new funds to enter, accelerated withdrawal of old funds, and the market gradually losing direction amid repeated fluctuations.