Why are gold and tech stocks moving against the trend, while Bitcoin is in trouble?

Bitcoin underperforms in 2025, not because of any inherent flaw, but due to a seemingly contradictory phenomenon: USD liquidity is contracting, while gold and the Nasdaq are rising. What is the underlying reason behind this?

USD Liquidity: The “Weather Forecast” of Financial Markets

Imagine the financial market as a ski resort’s snowpack. When liquidity is abundant, it’s like fresh powder falling in winter, providing “carrying capacity” for all risk assets. But when liquidity tightens, those “false booms” resemble melting ice sheets, exposing underlying fragility.

According to the latest market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $93,070, down 11% from a year ago. This performance is indeed weaker compared to the rising gold and Nasdaq index during the same period. But a deeper analysis reveals a pattern: when USD liquidity expands, both Bitcoin and Nasdaq tend to rise; when liquidity contracts, Bitcoin often leads the decline. 2025 has just experienced a transition from quantitative tightening (QT) to liquidity stabilization, which explains why Bitcoin’s performance appears so “dismal.”

Why Is Gold Surging Against the Trend?

The rise in gold prices seems counterintuitive to liquidity contraction, but there are deeper drivers: central banks worldwide are accumulating gold in large quantities.

The key is understanding the “fear psychology” of central banks. After the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed engaged in massive money printing; in 2022, the US froze some of Russia’s assets. These events made central banks realize: holding reserves in USD or US Treasuries carries significant risk. If even major powers’ assets can be frozen, then holdings of US debt by other countries could be “zeroed out” at any time.

What was the result? Since 2022, global central banks have accelerated their gold purchases. According to US trade data, December 2025 saw a significant increase in US gold exports, becoming a major reason for narrowing trade deficits—an intuitive sign that gold is once again becoming a key global reserve asset.

In contrast, retail investors have not flooded into gold. By analyzing the ratio of circulating shares of the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) to the spot gold price, we see this ratio declining, indicating that it is not retail speculation pushing gold higher—but rather “price-insensitive buyers” (central banks) quietly increasing their holdings.

Political Support for Tech Stocks

The Nasdaq’s ability to rise against the trend in 2025 is driven by a hidden force: the “nationalization” of the AI industry.

Both the US and China see AI as a strategic industry. The Trump administration, through executive orders and government investments, has effectively “nationalized” AI-related supply chains—large tech firms secure government contracts and financing. JPMorgan even launched a $1.5 trillion loan facility specifically for government-backed enterprises.

What does this mean? Even if overall USD credit growth is sluggish, AI-related industries can still receive continuous “political loans.” Commercial banks, backed by government “endorsement,” are willing to create money out of thin air to finance these strategic companies—since the government absorbs the default risk. This is why Nasdaq can break free from liquidity constraints and rise independently.

However, this model has precedents: Chinese stock investors have learned from similar experiences. When political goals override shareholder interests, these “strategic industry” stocks often suffer sharp declines—because the government cares about GDP growth and military competitiveness, not investment returns.

Why Is Bitcoin Losing?

In contrast, Bitcoin lacks this “political protection.” Its value mainly depends on the degree of fiat currency devaluation and liquidity levels. In 2025, the Fed is implementing QT, and although it launched the “Reserve Management Purchase (RMP)” plan in December injecting $40 billion monthly, it’s still insufficient to drive a significant Bitcoin rally.

This explains why skeptics of cryptocurrencies, such as gold advocates and stock bulls, mock Bitcoin: it has no political backing like central banks, nor does it have specific cash flow expectations. Its price is entirely liquidity-dependent. When liquidity contracts, Bitcoin is the first to suffer.

Where Is the Turning Point in 2026?

But the situation may be changing. The RMP plan signals the end of the QT era. More importantly, to boost the economy before the 2026 midterm elections, the Trump administration has begun implementing three major liquidity-expanding policies:

First, the Fed will expand its balance sheet. The RMP plan injects at least $40 billion monthly, and this number could rise as government financing needs increase.

Second, commercial banks will increase lending to strategic industries. Government backing encourages banks to “create money out of nothing” for corporate financing. This mirrors China’s credit creation model—significantly increasing the money circulation velocity and boosting nominal GDP.

Third, government-supported enterprises (like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) will use their balance sheets to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities. Lower mortgage rates enable ordinary people to buy homes or tap into home equity for consumption, generating a “wealth effect.”

Together, these measures imply a substantial expansion of USD liquidity is already underway.

Bitcoin’s Comeback Opportunity

An interesting coincidence is that both Bitcoin and the USD liquidity index hit bottom in December 2025. Historical experience suggests that when liquidity begins to expand, Bitcoin often rebounds.

Forget about Bitcoin’s sluggish performance in 2025—that was just a short-term consequence of insufficient liquidity. Once USD liquidity starts to grow, Bitcoin’s price trend is bound to improve. Based on the current price of $93,070 and historical patterns, if liquidity conditions improve, breaking $110,000 is no longer distant.

Investment Opportunities in the “Big Zero” Coins

Among crypto assets, some privacy coins are also worth attention. Zcash (ZEC), currently priced at $371.30, has become a low-entry opportunity after community changes. Compared to those “strategic industries” supported by governments, purely technological innovation assets tend to be more resilient during liquidity expansion cycles.

Outer Appearance, Inner Knowledge

Whether gold, tech stocks, or Bitcoin, their rises and falls follow a fundamental rule: liquidity is king. Gold rises due to central bank demand, tech stocks rise thanks to government support, and Bitcoin rises with liquidity expansion.

The key in 2026 is that liquidity expansion has become a consensus. Trump needs to demonstrate the effectiveness of his economic policies before the midterm elections, and central banks need to cooperate by releasing liquidity. Under this backdrop, risk assets all have opportunities, but the true winners will be those investors who can seize the liquidity cycle and adjust strategies in time.

The market continually proves the same truth: when “USD rain” is abundant, all assets will bloom. The question now is not “Will it rain,” but “When will it rain?” Based on policy signals and data, the answer seems quite clear.