#我的2026第一条帖

The current market is mainly divided into two factions:

1️⃣ Pure Bearish Camp: They solely rely on breaking below the 50-week moving average to assert that the market will replicate the 2022 trend, targeting 40,000–50,000. Ignoring changes in structure, capital, and institutional environment, this linear extrapolation is meaningless.

2️⃣ Pure Bullish Camp: They combine macro cycles, rate cut narratives, and the Super Cycle, assuming risks disappear by default. They also ignore the fact that any asset going up will experience bubbles and re-pricing.