Recently watching the 1-hour chart of SOL, there are some points worth discussing. As someone who has been oscillating between macro views and candlestick patterns for years, this trend pattern emits a sense of opportunity.

**Technical Analysis**

From 143.19 straight down to 128.27, the 1-hour triple-wave decline has already formed. Currently, the continuous long lower shadows in the 128-130 range indicate signs of buyers stepping in at the bottom. The MACD red histogram is shrinking, showing that momentum is indeed waning, but the DIFF is still hovering below the zero line, key to watch if a bullish crossover can occur. In the short term, the EMA30 around 134.5 marks the boundary between strength and weakness.

However, there is a hidden risk—volume accumulated during the decline, but the rebound is on decreasing volume. If the Asian session cannot hold above 132 tomorrow, it might need to fall back to test the 125 support.

**On-Chain Signals Are More Clear**

According to Nansen data, in the past 24 hours, SOL has net outflows of about 1.2 million tokens from exchanges, indicating that large holders are quietly positioning. Looking at the distribution, the high-cost zone above 140 only accounts for 18% of the chips, meaning retail investors have mostly been cut out, and the shakeout phase is well in place.

**Unexpected Trigger Point**

The Solana ecosystem’s Metaplex platform is set to release the V2 upgrade tomorrow, which reportedly can reduce minting costs by 50%. Historically, such ecosystem positive news often drives SOL to surge in the short term. Plus, recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes leaned dovish, restoring market risk appetite, and funds may prioritize flowing into the leading projects that have experienced the deepest declines.

**How to Operate**

If you are more aggressive: try a small position around 129.5, set a stop-loss at 127.9, and add to your position after breaking above 132.8, targeting 138. For a more conservative approach, wait until the 4-hour chart stabilizes above EMA30 (134.5) before following on the right side.

This point has arrived nicely; it all depends on whether the upcoming volume can support the rebound.