Many people have been comparing Bitcoin's current trend to 2022 recently, saying they look quite similar. Upon closer inspection, it's true that the short-term K-line charts are somewhat alike, but making such a comparison is fundamentally flawed.

From price cycles, macro environment, to capital flows and position structures, the underlying logic of the two periods is entirely different. The biggest pitfall in financial markets is being fooled by superficial data similarities while ignoring the core drivers in the long term, macro perspective, and fundamentals.

**What was the situation in 2022**

Remember March 2022? At that time, the US was caught in a vicious cycle of high inflation and rate hikes, mainly because:

During the pandemic, excessive liquidity was injected, causing a liquidity explosion. When the Ukraine conflict erupted, inflation was reignited, and prices of various commodities soared. As a result, risk-free interest rates kept rising, and systemic capital was drained from the market, making the financial environment increasingly tight. Investors' main focus was on fleeing, trying to shed risk. The decline of Bitcoin essentially reflected the rhythm of a tightening cycle, with sell-offs.

**Now it's completely the opposite**

The Ukraine situation is gradually easing, and the US is using rate cuts and liquidity releases to counter inflation. CPI is trending downward, and risk-free interest rates are also decreasing. Just this alone is enough to change the game.