#数字资产市场动态 ETH 1-Hour Chart Reveals Rebound Signal: Are Whales Positioning?

In this market, analyzing charts isn't just about candlesticks; you need to understand the story behind them. Currently, ETH's 1-hour trend is indeed grim—dropping from 3368 all the way below 3100, closely hugging the lower Bollinger Band (3076), with MACD lines both below zero, creating a sense of suffocation visually.

But interesting details are hidden below:

Technical Indicators Are Showing Fatigue

The price quickly rebounded from 3083 back above 3100, with long lower shadows indicating buyers are stepping in at low levels. This is no coincidence.

The Bollinger Bands are stretched wide, and the price has been hugging the lower band. Such oversold conditions suggest a rebound is imminent—it's just a matter of time.

MACD is indeed negative, but the histogram narrows to -9.46, indicating weakening bearish momentum. This is called a "exhaustion decline," often followed by a reversal.

On-Chain Data Tells the Truth

Most importantly: in the past 24 hours, large addresses have accumulated over 120,000 ETH. Exchange net outflows have surged to the highest point this month.

Open interest (OI) hasn't shown a significant decline, indicating that large-scale short positions haven't been closed, but rather, fuel is being accumulated. Once this "short squeeze" scenario triggers, the rebound could be very strong.

Fundamentals Are Changing Too

The decision window for Ethereum spot ETFs is approaching, and ETH balances on institutional custody addresses have surged this week.

Layer2 ecosystems are growing against the trend, especially the Base chain, which just hit a new all-time high in daily trading volume. While prices are falling, fundamentals are heating up—this divergence will eventually correct.

How to View This Situation

The market is playing out a "final dip." The 3100-3080 range is a key support on the weekly chart and also the bottom zone for most quantitative models.

Once the hourly chart closes above the Bollinger middle band (3165), the short squeeze and the rallying bulls will resonate, and that will be a real move.

Trading Strategy

Short-term: Buy in batches around 3080-3100, with stop-loss below 3050, targeting 3200 (the upper Bollinger Band resistance).

Mid-term: If volume breaks through 3250, a trend reversal is confirmed, and you can add positions aiming for 3400+.

Trading is like this—when most people are fearful, data clearly points to where the answer lies. Selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, and the rebound arrow is already drawn. This isn't about blindly calling for a rally, but about the chart, on-chain data, and capital flows all pointing in the same direction.

$ETH