2026: Will the crystal ball prevail or will the structure of the crypto market remain in the nebulous?

The Regulatory Dilemma That Will Define the Coming Year

The cryptocurrency industry enters 2026 at a paradoxical crossroads. After months of unexpected regulatory progress—with the SEC and CFTC adopting notably favorable stances—many political operators in Washington D.C. are questioning whether the once urgent goal remains a priority: passing a law on the structure of the crypto market.

This legislation would represent the formal legitimization of most token issuers and intermediaries in the United States, a recognition the industry has pursued for years. However, according to experts directly consulted, there is growing skepticism that the Senate can process it before the 2026 electoral calendar causes legislative paralysis.

Two Conflicting Views on the Way Forward

The optimistic perspective within the crypto establishment argues that regulators are achieving substantial victories without waiting for Congress. Paul Atkins, head of the SEC, has indicated that the agency has sufficient authority derived from the 1933 and 1934 laws to reshape the regulatory landscape. The upcoming implementation of a safe harbor for tokens—expected in January—exemplifies this administrative progress, making the legislative battle less urgent.

Some political leaders in the sector have begun to articulate a different narrative: taking more time to properly structure legislation is preferable to passing an imperfect measure under time pressure. A well-known sector analyst called this obsession with legislating in 2026 the “market structure disorder syndrome,” suggesting that favorable changes already underway would be difficult to reverse in future administrations.

The opposing view warns of the risks of inaction. Other crypto policy experts express genuine concern about the consequences of lacking a solid legislative framework. They argue that the legitimacy only a law can confer is crucial to attracting massive investors who still perceive the sector with distrust, viewing it as a speculative space without clear regulation.

For these actors, the current “public perception” of cryptocurrencies as a shady space cannot be addressed through administrative moves alone. Robust legislation would fundamentally alter how millions of skeptical people view the industry.

The Clock Is Ticking, But Toward What?

The crystal ball on what will happen in 2026 reflects a real crossroads. The political window to legislate is narrow: before midterm electoral dynamics freeze Congress in spring, there is little room for maneuver.

The question that will define the coming year is not just technical: it is strategic. Can regulators, on their own, implement changes that benefit the sector in an irreversible way? Or does the crypto industry urgently need a law that grants it full institutional legitimacy before the general public?

The answers will determine not only the immediate regulatory future but also how the crypto sector positions itself amid the political uncertainty of the coming years.