Recently, there has been an interesting viewpoint circulating in the market: although the US GDP figures have looked like they are growing over the past three years, the underlying economy is actually quietly in decline. In industry terms, it is at a "ready to surge" critical point, prepared for a rebound at any time.

The founder of ARK Invest expressed this judgment in the latest annual investment letter. She described the US economy over the next three years as an "enhanced wave of economic reforms"—a combination of deregulation, tax cuts, prudent monetary policy, and innovative technology, which could usher in a new period of prosperity in the stock market. However, she also pointed out a risk: if the dollar continues to appreciate, it might slow down the rise of gold prices.

From a policy perspective, the newly appointed department heads are pushing forward with deregulation agendas, which can indeed reduce burdens on businesses. It is said that the effective tax rate could drop to around 10%, which is a solid positive for economic growth. Coupled with the boost from productivity engines like artificial intelligence and new technologies, inflationary pressures are expected to ease.

In other words, although the US economy appears somewhat weak in the short term, from the perspectives of policy, taxation, and technology, there is indeed considerable room for a subsequent rebound. This is also why some institutions remain relatively optimistic about the market performance in the coming years.