Why does Timmer from Fidelity insist that the Bitcoin cycle will continue to dominate the market in 2026?

While some heavyweights in the financial sector have begun to question the relevance of bitcoin’s four-year cycle, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Global Macro Director, maintains a different stance. This well-known analyst in traditional finance argues that historical patterns remain valid and that the current market faithfully replicates the behavior of previous cycles.

Timmer’s argument: the numbers speak for themselves

Timmer’s technical analysis is based on a visual comparison of the highs reached in previous bull markets. According to his observations, after 145 weeks of growth, the peak of $125,000 recorded in October 2025 aligns perfectly with historical projections. This suggests that the four-year pattern is not only intact but still predictable.

Timmer projects that what comes next will be a correction phase. Bear markets following historical peaks tend to last approximately a year, which would position 2026 as a “year of rest” or “stagnation year” for bitcoin. During this window, the analyst estimates that key support would be between $65,000 and $75,000.

The halving theory and its impact on prices

The four-year cycle is intrinsically linked to bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years. During these events, the reward for mining a block is halved, creating an supply shock that has historically driven significant price movements.

The typical pattern following a halving includes a prolonged bull market, followed by corrections that often exceed 80%, then gradually recover until the next halving. The 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings have marked clear cycles responding to this scheme, and the 2024 event seems to be following the same trajectory.

The opposing position gains ground, but Timmer remains firm

Recently, prominent analysts like Matt Hougan of Bitwise and Cathie Wood of ARK Invest have publicly rejected the continued validity of the four-year cycle. Their main argument is that bitcoin has evolved significantly: the arrival of ETFs, institutional regulatory acceptance, and integration into traditional financial markets have transformed bitcoin from a marginal asset to a mainstream one. In this new context, they claim that previous cycles are no longer applicable.

However, Timmer counters that his chart analyses show no evidence of cycle disruption. Historical data continues to present too-close parallels to ignore, supporting his conviction that 2026 will indeed be a consolidation period for bitcoin.

With BTC currently trading at $90.68K, the coming months will be decisive in validating or refuting this thesis of persistent cycles in an increasingly sophisticated market.