2026-01-20 16:22:22

Bitcoin's recent trend has experienced a significant correction. From a technical perspective, the current MACD daily chart shows a death cross signal, indicating that the previous rebound wave has ended and the market has reverted to a long-term downtrend cycle. Based on the current pace, at least until the January end interest rate meeting, BTC will remain in a relatively weak phase.

Regarding short-term trading directions, there is a certain support level around 9.1K. Aggressive traders can attempt to catch the rebound, with a roughly 60-70% success probability near 91,850 USDT, and the rebound space is expected to be over 1,000 points. However, a more prudent approach is to avoid two-way trading and wait for a larger rebound to form before entering short positions.

From a strategic standpoint, the optimal plan is actually to gradually establish long-term short positions at the two key resistance levels of 94,000 and 98,000, and patiently wait. This approach can avoid being affected by short-term volatility and fundamentally grasp the medium-term trend. There is no need to overly worry about short-term entry mistakes or being caught in positions; the focus should be on the overall direction. BTC can consider short entries if it retraces to 91,850 USDT, and ETH also has a chance at the 3,150 level.

BTC-4,16%

ETH-7,51%

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BuyTheTop

· 8h ago

Death cross again? I'm tired of this routine. Those relying on MACD for bottom-fishing are all crying.

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MysteryBoxOpener

· 8h ago

The death cross has arrived, it seems we'll have to wait until the end of January. This wave is indeed weak... --- That support level at 91850 still feels a bit shaky. A 60-70% probability doesn't sound very solid. --- The long-term short position strategy of stacking gradually is a reliable approach, but you have to withstand the psychological torment. --- It's the old routine of 9.45 and 9.8, always talking about key levels, but what’s the result? --- Waiting for a bigger rebound before taking action. It sounds easy, but who can really resist when actually trading? --- Keep an eye on ETH at 3150, but BTC is still the main focus. --- Don't dwell on short-term mistakes; it sounds like something said after losing money. --- It feels like this downtrend cycle might drag into spring. Is it a bit early to get involved now?

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GasGrillMaster

· 8h ago

It's a death cross again, and another downtrend cycle. Why haven't we crashed if it's always like this every day? --- Shorts at 91850? Bro, the last time I heard you say that, your account was wiped out. --- Safe? I think you're just safely losing money. Anyway, I won't touch this position. --- Long-term short positions in batches... sounds good, but I've never made money from it. I'll choose to lie flat. --- Entering ETH at 3150? Let's see if it can hold steady first, no rush. --- This wave of adjustment is just so-so, completely different from what was predicted. --- 60-70% success rate? How is this data calculated? I haven't calculated such probabilities before.

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ChainChef

· 8h ago

ngl this macd death cross recipe is looking a bit half-baked rn... sitting on hands till we see what really simmers at those resistance levels, not touching anything till the ingredients settle properly tbh

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 8h ago

A death cross has occurred. We'll have to wait again this time. If you don't want to get chopped up like a leek, don't rush to get on board.

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LiquidityNinja

· 8h ago

The MACD death cross is here again. How low can it go this time... Anyway, I'm waiting for the September 1st break before making a move.

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