Another major on-chain movement has flooded the headlines. An address created in July 2013 suddenly transferred out 500 Bitcoin after being dormant for exactly 13 years, with a market value of about $85 million. When this old-timer entered the market with $50,000, Bitcoin was around $100; now it has increased by 1700 times, and some of it was dumped into the market near $70,000.

Don't rush to speculate yet. There are three possible explanations behind this transfer. The first, most sentimental one: a true believer has finally decided to take some profits and improve their life after 13 years. The second, more far-fetched: the private key was gathering dust in a corner for 13 years and was only recently rediscovered. The third, most heart-pounding—this could be a tentative move by an early whale, and the real large-scale sell-off might still be coming.

Here’s a correction to a common misconception. Many people see an ancient address waking up and automatically assume "veteran players are confident about the market and are reluctant to move." The logic is actually the other way around. If they truly had confidence in the future, why not keep pretending to be inactive? The act of transferring itself is a signal: the price has reached a suitable level, and they are taking some profits first. This isn’t bullishness; it’s a clear plan to realize gains.

On-chain data is indeed worth paying attention to, but don’t be fooled by simple large transfers. The 500 BTC movement this time looks more like early profit-taking at relatively high levels, with an elegant exit. In the crypto market, learning to distinguish between "institutional entry" and "whale profit-taking" is far more helpful for judging the market direction than blindly chasing highs.