Friday Soybean Rally: What the Numbers Tell Us

fomo_fighter · 2026-01-20T22:07:44+00:00

The soybean market is rebounding, with prices rising as early selling pressure eases. Despite a positive price outlook for soybeans, export commitments are notably down 25% compared to last year, indicating significant concerns. Brazilian crop updates offer slight support, but overall, export weaknesses dominate.

fomo_fighter

2026-01-20 22:07:44

Abstract generation in progress

The soybean complex is staging a comeback on Friday, with beans climbing 2 to 3 cents as early selling pressure eases. According to cmdtyView’s national benchmarks, Cash Bean prices have jumped 2 1/2 cents to settle at $9.85 1/2. Contract months are painting a bullish picture—Mar 26 Soybeans are up 2 1/4 cents to $10.55 1/4, May 26 rallied 2 3/4 cents to $10.67, and Jul 26 gained 3 cents to reach $10.79 1/4.

Meanwhile, the protein and oil components show mixed signals. Soymeal futures are wavering between losses and gains, oscillating in a range of -70 cents to +$1.10 by midday. Soy Oil futures, by contrast, are slipping 20 to 25 points. Traders should note that Monday’s market closure for Martin Luther King Jr. Day will shift the reopening to Monday evening.

Export Data Signals Concern

The real story lies in the export numbers. As of January 8, total soybean commitments stand at 30.637 MMT—a concerning 25% below the same period last year. This represents just 71% of the USDA’s annual projection, running 15 percentage points behind the historical norm.

Actual accumulated shipments paint an even grimmer picture at 17.984 MMT, representing only 42% of the USDA estimate. This lags the typical 60% pace significantly, suggesting potential challenges in meeting export targets.

Brazilian Crop Updates Provide Minor Support

On the supply front, Brazilian growers are getting slightly better news. Following crop reassessments from private analysts Thursday, Safras lifted its Brazilian soybean projection by 0.52 MMT to 179.28 MMT. This modest upward revision may be providing some price support to the commodity complex, though export weakness remains the dominant concern for Friday’s trading session.

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