Soybean Market Holding Steady as Export Demand Strengthens

DeFiGrayling · 2026-01-21T01:05:36+00:00

Soybean futures began the Friday session steady with mixed price movements. Recent export sales exceeded forecasts, particularly from China, and crushing activity showed strong performance. The EPA is set to finalize biodiesel mandates soon, affecting future market dynamics.

DeFiGrayling

2026-01-21 01:05:36

Abstract generation in progress

Soybean futures are holding steady to start the Friday session, with prices showing mixed movements across the contract spectrum. The Thursday trading session delivered gains of 8 to 10 cents for most contracts, while open interest expanded by 3,056 positions. The national cash soybean average climbed to $9.82, representing a 10 3/4 cent premium. Soybean meal contracts pulled back $2.20 to settle at $5 at midday, while soy oil futures demonstrated strength with advances ranging from 122 to 199 points.

Export Activity Outpaces Expectations

USDA export sales figures released for the week ending January 8 painted an optimistic picture for demand. Total soybean sales reached 2.06 million metric tons, marking the third-largest weekly volume of the marketing year and surpassing analyst forecasts. This represented the most significant volume in four weeks and dwarfed the comparable period from a year prior by more than 400%. China emerged as the dominant buyer, acquiring 1.224 million metric tons, while Egypt secured 273,200 MT and Mexico purchased 191,000 MT. Forward commitments for 2026/27 totaled a modest 10,000 MT. Cumulative sales to China, factoring in this week’s announcements, have now reached 8.8 million metric tons.

Supporting product sales also exceeded expectations. Soybean meal sales tallied 340,579 MT, landing at the upper end of the 150,000-400,000 MT projection range. Bean oil sales of 14,113 MT settled within the middle of industry estimates, between 0-26,000 MT.

Crushing Activity and Inventory Levels

December crush data from NOPA members revealed 224.991 million bushels processed, modestly exceeding trade expectations. The figure reflects an 8.9% increase compared to December 2023 and demonstrates 4.14% growth sequentially from November levels. Soybean oil inventories showed particular strength, rising 8.5% from late November and climbing 32.8% year-over-year to reach 1.642 billion pounds.

Policy Framework Adjustments Ahead

According to Reuters reporting, the Environmental Protection Agency is anticipated to finalize renewable volumetric obligations for 2026 by early March. The biodiesel mandate is expected to settle within a 5.2-5.6 billion gallon range, falling slightly below the 5.61 billion gallons proposed last June. Of particular significance, regulators are projected to eliminate provisions that impose penalties on imported feedstocks, effectively doubling their renewable identification number value.

Contract Settlement Summary

March 26 soybeans closed at $10.53, up 10 1/2 cents, currently trading down 1/4 cent. The nearby cash position remained at $9.82, up 10 3/4 cents for the session. May 26 soybeans finished at $10.64 1/4, advancing 9 1/4 cents and currently unchanged. July 26 soybeans settled at $10.76 1/4, up 8 cents, with current activity showing a 1/4 cent gain.

Markets will remain closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, resuming regular evening sessions on Monday evening.

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