#加密市场周期与长期趋势 Seeing Fidelity's 2026 outlook, once again I am reminded of the cyclical debates from those years.

I remember at the end of 2015, someone firmly declared that the four-year cycle was dead, only to see another wave in 2017; during the 2018 bear market, some swore it would never return to previous highs, only to be proven wrong in 2019. Now Kuiper says the cycle hasn't disappeared because human greed and fear are eternal—this sounds familiar, but it’s also the most honest—indeed, that’s how it is.

But this time, the narrative has shifted. Previously, we discussed retail investors' emotional swings; now, Fidelity is talking about nation-level strategic games, corporate purchases, and traditional capital entering the market. This is a true paradigm shift. The idea that countries are treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset—who would have dared to imagine that in 2013? Once reserve-level demand kicks in, the supply and demand curve is no longer dominated by retail sentiment.

But risks must also be clearly understood. I’ve seen the logic of "forced selling during bear markets" mentioned by Kuiper too many times. Corporate assets and national reserves sound stable, but when liquidity crises or policy reversals happen, who knows what will occur? When Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapsed in 2022, those confident stories instantly fell apart.

So the key issue isn’t whether the cycle will disappear, but the quality and scale of incremental demand. If it’s truly driven by government reserves, it can indeed change the game; but if it’s just marketing and expectations, the truth will be revealed later in 2026. For now, we still have to wait.