#加密市场周期与长期趋势 Fidelity's report touches on two points worth paying attention to.

First is the game theory logic behind national reserve demand—once a country takes the lead in including Bitcoin in foreign exchange reserves, the subsequent pressure and competitive effects will indeed form. From a supply and demand perspective, this is a clear incremental demand, but the key variables are how large the scale will be and the attitude of existing holders. In the short term, such expectations can push prices higher, but whether these expectations can translate into actual purchasing behavior will be answered over time.

Second is the discussion of the four-year cycle. Kuiper is quite right—the emotions of fear and greed haven't dissipated, so cyclical patterns still exist. But determining whether the current correction marks the start of a new bear market or is just an adjustment within a bull market indeed requires waiting for more signals. My view is to observe the pace at which on-chain whales build positions and the actual inflow of institutional funds, as these will reflect true intentions earlier than price signals.

Finally, a risk reminder—large holders at the corporate or national level, once they need liquidity or face pressure, could exert considerable selling pressure. In the long term, incremental demand is a positive factor, but participation pace and risk management are equally important.