The prediction market is really polarized right now🔥 Polymarket and Kalshi, the two big players, are well-funded—one with a $8 billion valuation just raised $2 billion, and the other with a $5 billion valuation raised $300 million—still able to continue pouring money into market maker subsidies. In contrast, other new projects? What do they have to compete with🤷

The most heartbreaking part is the difficulty of market making—it's not that low participation thresholds mean easy profits; inventory risk, unilateral trends, news disparities—these can directly crush retail traders😅 Event-driven jumps, insider information advantages—market makers are basically on the receiving end of passive hits. Polymarket market makers only earn about 0.2% of the trading volume; this kind of business is really not suitable for lazy people.

Haseeb was right a few days ago—90% of prediction market products will disappear by the end of the year, and this is not an alarmist statement. If you ask me, instead of dreaming of a hundred flowers blooming, it's better to go all-in on the leading players; the probability of winning passively is higher🎯