#预测市场 Looking at this wave of big project week’s new listings, I have to be honest — there are indeed many opportunities, but even more pitfalls.

At times like these, it’s easiest to be blinded by the wealth effect. The surges of STBL and 0G are flashing before your eyes, and you start rushing to invest recklessly, often ending up catching the bag at a high point. I’ve seen too many people follow the trend by scanning QR codes during big project weeks, only to watch helplessly as the tokens launch and break below their listing price.

Careful examination of these projects reveals several details worth warning about:

**Upheaval** is now overfunded by more than 870%, which is a signal — early participants’ costs have been seriously diluted. When you see such overfunding numbers, it indicates seller sentiment is already very strong, and the difficulty of catching a bag after listing is rising sharply.

**Limitless** has a good endorsement, but the project itself previously faced controversy over wash trading. The prediction market sector is indeed hot right now, but the heat itself is a risk. When the market is betting on the same type of sector, it precisely indicates that this direction might already be priced in.

**Tea and Yield Basis** seem to have the most halo — well-known founders and backing from big VCs. But I’ve learned a lesson: the brighter the halo, the higher the option premium, and the higher the chance of breaking below the listing price. During fundraising, valuation is one set of logic, but the secondary market operates under another.

The real strategy for surviving new listings isn’t chasing the hottest projects, but:

1. Only participate in projects with a solid user base and cash flow (like Goated, which has at least data support)
2. Avoid rounds that are severely overfunded — this indicates risk has already been underestimated
3. Don’t put all your bullets into one week; big project weeks should actually lower your participation frequency

This wave of opportunities is real, but don’t be hypnotized by the concept of "big project week." The easiest times to make money are often the easiest times to go bankrupt.