#加密市场周期与长期趋势 When I saw this message, I didn't get excited immediately; instead, I became more cautious. "The market is starting to turn around," "trend changes are emerging"—I've heard these words too many times, each time just a prelude to cutting the leeks.

But this time is indeed a bit different. Carefully examining the changes at the data level, rather than just listening to stories, is the key to longevity. Darkfost also spoke honestly—"further verification is needed before drawing definitive conclusions." No exaggerated good news, which actually gives me confidence.

After experiencing several cycles, I understand that market reversals are not a straight line; they are confirmed gradually amid fluctuations. At this point in time, it's worth observing but not worth going all in. Those who say "opportunities are here, jump on quickly" are mostly trying to get you to take over their positions.

My approach is: first, continuously track these trend data to see if they can be truly confirmed; second, if there is indeed an opportunity, only invest spare funds that you can afford to lose; third, have a clear understanding of the fundamentals behind the assets and not be blinded by short-term price surges.

A market turnaround doesn't mean it's suitable for everyone to enter. To survive long on-chain, you need to stay calm when others are greedy and not be overly cautious when real opportunities arise. Now is the observation period, not the action period.