I've been feeling a bit like complaining these days. The US stock market opened lower yesterday, followed by adjustments in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Gold hit a new high again, and the precious metals market is dancing along. In contrast, the vitality that once characterized the crypto market really can't be regained.

Altcoins are generally hitting new lows. This bull market has lasted for several years, but now it looks even worse than a prolonged bear market. It's quite ironic—Bitcoin and Ethereum's current performance are as weak as junk stocks in the US market, and apart from BTC which is relatively holding steady, other cryptocurrencies are spiraling downward. The US stock market is similar; the seven major tech giants can still hold up, but other stocks are continuously declining.

It reminds me of the old saying, "When the wind blows, even pigs can fly." But the problem is, there are too many pigs, and the wind only blows on a few. The wind has become very selective.

From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin has been continuously declining, the support at the monthly chart level has not been broken yet, which is a critical point. The current outlook is still leaning bullish, provided that the monthly support holds. Once the monthly level breaks, be prepared for a new round of decline. Ethereum is moving in sync with Bitcoin, but its fluctuations have always been larger than BTC. Currently, the monthly chart hasn't broken yet but is close, though the main trend still follows Bitcoin.

So the conclusion is simple: based on Bitcoin's monthly support as a benchmark, the short-term outlook still leans bullish, but the risk is right at that monthly level. Once it breaks, the downside space could be significant.