Watching BTC rebound above 88,000, some are cheering and thinking the bottom is in. I lit a cigarette and give a sincere suggestion: "Surface-level rallies are often paving the way for the next dump."

First, a reality check: many people are losing money and can't tell the difference between a rebound and a reversal. Two words apart, and the fate could change. Today, I won't talk about illusions; I'll use institutional-level trading logic (SMC system) to dissect this market move for you.

**Why is the current rally called a "dead cat bounce"?**

Don’t be fooled by that big bullish candle. Do you think bouncing from 88,230 to now means the bottom is in? That’s too simplistic.

In the SMC trading framework, the only standard to judge if a trend has truly reversed is—has the structure been broken? How to see? Very simple—look at the highs.

What’s the current situation? The highs are being pushed down. Each rebound’s peak has not exceeded the previous high. This is called "Lower Highs"—a sign of a downtrend.

Where is the bulls’ line of defense? At 89,644.5. As long as the price can’t break through with volume and hold above it, every upward move now is essentially a "trend continuation" in a downtrend. Like a ball thrown up, no matter how high it bounces, it must land—physics rules are inescapable.

**Where does the rebound come from? Not bullish strength**

Don’t misunderstand. This rebound isn’t a sign of bullish power. What is it then? It’s the market makers "filling the gaps."

During the decline, there are always some "Fair Value Gaps" left behind. These zones lack liquidity, and institutions use rebounds to fill these gaps. Looks like a savior, but in reality, they’re creating conditions for bigger dumps.

Market participants’ logic is simple: during the decline, they absorb a large number of short positions. Now, they need a rebound to activate bullish sentiment so that when they dump again, there are enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. Simply put, they lure people in first, then slam the door on them.

**Why does this logic apply now?**

Look at the 15-minute structure: although there’s a rebound, each high is lower than the previous one—this is a clear sign of a "continuing downtrend." If bulls really had the power to reverse, they would have stabilized at previous highs, not keep making lower highs.

The current situation is like this: the gaps left during the decline have been partially filled, liquidity traps are set, just waiting for the next wave of rapid breakdown.

**How to see the bottom?**

Remember this number: 89,644.5. It’s the dividing line between true bulls and bears. If it can’t be broken, the trend continues downward; if it breaks and holds, a reversal might be possible. The current rebound? Just a pulse along the way, not the end.

A piece of advice: see clearly before acting. Don’t let short-term fluctuations on the chart throw you off rhythm. Institutional-level operations are planned; they won’t let retail traders easily catch the bottom.