SIGN token unlocks in one week: what is the risk of 96 million tokens flooding the market?

According to the latest news, SIGN (SIGN) will unlock approximately 96.67 million tokens on January 28th at 18:00 Beijing time, valued at about $3.68 million. This unlock scale accounts for nearly 60% of the current circulating supply and is a market event not to be overlooked. Considering that SIGN has been live for only about 9 months, this large-scale unlock could exert pressure on the market.

Unlock Scale Assessment

The implications behind the numbers

From a circulating supply perspective, this unlock will increase the market circulation tokens by nearly 60%. This is a significant increase, meaning the market will need to absorb a large influx of new supply. In comparison, the unlock accounts for only 0.97% of the total supply, indicating that the project’s overall dilution is relatively moderate, but the impact on recent liquidity remains evident.

Project Status and Market Capacity

SIGN currently has a market cap of about $62.45 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $5.1 million. Based on trading volume, the average daily turnover is only 8.2% of the market cap, indicating relatively limited market depth. This suggests that once the tokens are unlocked and flood into the market, liquidity challenges may arise.

It is worth noting that SIGN has declined by 10.16% over the past 7 days but has increased by 7.31% over 30 days, showing market sentiment fluctuations. The decline before the unlock may reflect market expectations of this event.

Market Impact Analysis

Possible Risk Factors

• Supply Pressure: Over 96 million newly circulating tokens require corresponding market demand to absorb
• Price Pressure: Historically, large-scale unlocks often accompany downward price pressure
• Liquidity Risk: Current trading volume may be insufficient to smoothly digest this scale of unlock
• Psychological Expectations: The market has already anticipated this, and actual selling pressure during unlock may exceed expectations

Possible Market Responses

Market reactions to token unlocks depend on several factors: the actual flow of unlocked tokens (whether they are concentrated in selling), overall market sentiment at the time, and whether the project team has measures in place (such as token burns or lockups). If the unlocked tokens are dispersed across multiple accounts and released gradually, the impact will be relatively mild. Conversely, if there is a concentrated sell-off, larger volatility may occur.

Key Points to Watch Post-Event

Before and after the January 28th unlock, investors should monitor:

• Price performance and trading volume changes during the unlock
• Movements of large transfer addresses
• Whether the project team releases any response measures
• Overall market sentiment alignment

Summary

This token unlock for SIGN is a clear market event, accounting for nearly 60% of the current circulating supply, representing a medium to large unlock scale. The key factors are whether market liquidity can absorb this influx and the actual flow of unlocked tokens. Historically, large-scale unlocks tend to exert short-term pressure on prices, but long-term effects depend on the project’s fundamentals and the overall market environment. Investors should closely monitor market dynamics before and after the unlock and implement proper risk management.