【BTC 4H Technical Structure In-Depth Analysis | Breakout Confirmation, Bearish Trend Accelerating】

Trend Qualitative and Structural Evolution
Bitcoin has completed a decisive break below the core zone of $89,800-$90,000 on the 4-hour chart. The price sharply broke through previous key support levels with increased volume and continues to trade below all moving averages, indicating that the market has officially shifted from a consolidation phase to a unilateral downtrend. Currently, the bears are fully in control, with the price showing a "disconnected" decline, and in the short term, it is in a technically oversold area.

Multi-Dimensional Technical Structure Analysis

1. Moving Average System and Dynamic Resistance:
· Moving averages across different periods are diverging in a bearish arrangement, clearly acting as resistance. MA5 (~89828) rapidly moved down near the recently broken support level, forming a "ceiling" resistance together with the 89800-90200 zone.
· The price significantly deviates from the moving averages, indicating strong downward momentum. This deviation also suggests an intrinsic market need for a technical rebound toward the nearest MA (MA5). The strength of this rebound is key to assessing future market strength or weakness.
2. Role Reversal of Key Price Levels:
· Resistance Reconfiguration: The original core support zone of 89800-90500 USD has been thoroughly converted into a solid resistance band, serving as the primary measure of rebound validity.
· Downside Target: After a successful break, the immediate target below points to the previous low near 87800 USD marked on the chart. This level is the last support platform with some technical significance in the recent period; its hold or failure will determine whether the decline slows down or accelerates further.
3. Momentum Indicators Verification:
· MACD: The dual lines are accelerating downward below the zero axis, with the histogram expanding again, confirming the strengthening of bearish momentum and trend self-sustenance.
· Volume: During the breakout, volume significantly increased, validating the authenticity of the decline and the emergence of some panic selling. Such volume-driven breakouts usually imply a higher difficulty for a short-term reversal.
· RSI: Currently at 24.58, in an oversold state. In a clear downtrend, caution is needed regarding potential indicator fatigue; a single RSI oversold condition is not a reliable contrarian signal.

Market Outlook and Projection
The market has now entered the trend operation phase after the breakout. The key focus moving forward is the market reaction when testing the support around 87800 USD:

· If a stabilization and rebound occur near this level, the strength (whether it can reach or approach the 89800 resistance) will determine whether the market enters a low-range consolidation or continues downward after a weak rebound.
· If the 87800 support is easily broken, the downward space will open further, with the next target zone around 86000-85000.
· A true trend reversal requires time to build a bottom structure, such as multiple tests of the key price level forming a "bottom divergence" or consolidation platform, accompanied by momentum indicator recovery.

(BTC, as the market leader, sets the tone for the overall direction with its breakout trend. Subscribers can access real-time data of the "Trend Momentum Quantification Model" and analysis of long and short positions at key levels to capture market rhythm.)#欧美关税风波冲击市场