1. Market Overview Based on the latest 14-day K-line and 48-hour hourly data, Ethereum (ETH) is currently priced at 2967.48 USDT, precisely matching the latest daily K-line closing price. Over the past 14 days, ETH has retreated from a high of 3354.93, showing a clear downward trend. Recent volatility has increased, especially with rapid pullbacks in the high-range zones; in the past two trading days, the daily average amplitude exceeded 50 USD, indicating market sentiment is in turmoil. In terms of trading volume, there has been a continuous decline over several days, with volume increasing during sharp declines (e.g., daily volumes of 306450 and 276581), reflecting significant selling pressure. Hourly K-line analysis shows short-term fluctuations between 2950-3010, with active local trading but persistent price pressure and weak rebounds. Combining market news and mainstream analyst opinions, current investor sentiment is cautious or even weakening, with short-term support levels moving lower.

2. Technical Analysis The K-line data shows ETH has closed in red for multiple days, with lower highs. Key resistance levels are the recent high of 2975.41 (latest daily high) and the dense trading zone of 3000-3010 above. Strong support is at 2921.89 (the lowest point in the past two days) and lower levels at 2921 and 2903.95 (the lowest close within 14 days). During significant declines, volume has surged notably, especially during retracement from high levels, indicating main capital selling pressure. Hourly chart analysis indicates ETH mostly oscillates between 2960-3010, with rebound highs generally stopping around 2975. Overall, the short-term trend remains bearish, with each rebound high decreasing, forming a standard downward channel structure. Support and resistance are roughly at 2920-2930 and 2970-3010 (observed on hourly K-line). Regarding volume, large transactions in the past 48 hours are concentrated during declines, with the maximum hourly volume reaching 19584.8, accompanied by price breaking below 2970, indicating limited short-term bullish support and a clear advantage for bears.

3. News and Policy Interpretation Based on comprehensive market and policy information, there are no new developments from the policy side ("Data does not provide policy changes"). Recent news focuses on increased institutional ETH purchases, frequent large on-chain transfers, record-breaking active trading, but related capital inflows have not effectively boosted ETH prices: - Latest news shows Trend Research, whale addresses, etc., continue buying ETH but have not reversed the downtrend. - Positive news such as “ETHGas airdrop tool launched” and “large on-chain transfers” have limited market reaction and have not catalyzed expected movements. - Media outlets like UToday and Bitcoin note that ETF capital inflows continue but are insufficient to absorb overall market selling pressure; ETH prices fluctuate around key levels but remain weak overall. - Headlines like “Ethereum daily trading volume hits new high, gas fees drop to historic lows” indicate on-chain activity remains active but reflects price pressure rather than support. In summary, despite some positive catalysts, short-term rebounds are weak, and investors are generally cautious or observing.

4. Analyst Opinions Summary - “ETH multi-market price around -3085 SL; 3068 for adding positions” — Chain on-chain, suggests caution for longs with stop-loss, recommends monitoring below 3068 for adding positions with manageable risk. - “ETH direction: short build-up near 3180 with stop-loss at 3210 and take-profit at 3150-3120-3090; flexible entry” — Da Chui Ke, advises shorting on rallies, expecting short-term bearish momentum, with clear stop-loss and take-profit levels. - “ETH entry zone: near 3150-3250 with stop-loss at 3320; take-profit at 3060, 2935, 2800” — Dapianiao member group emphasizes setting clear stop-loss and take-profit levels, with targets moving downward as price declines. - “Bullish buy-in: 3085-3040; TP1: 3158.12; TP2: 3212.02; TP3: 3289.11; TP4: 3387.45; 3018.10 recommended…” — Coin sniper suggests patiently holding long positions but waiting for further pullback confirmation of support. - “Weekly bullish candles indicate a good rebound signal but face resistance at 3400… Key supports are at 3060 and 3150; if broken, watch 3050; if lost, target 2800” — Dapianiao member group, short-term bearish bias and caution about forming M-top structures. Comparing with actual K-line, the buy zones around 3085 and 3150 failed to hold, with prices dropping below 2960 faster; some strong support levels (3060, 3050) have been broken, indicating the market is weaker than some optimistic expectations. Short positions performed better, with more accurate short-term trend predictions.

5. Market Outlook and Trading Suggestions Based on K-line structure and current volume analysis, ETH is expected to continue oscillating and repairing between 2950-3010 in the short term, but overall bearish, with major support lowered to 2921. If it breaks below 2920, further decline to 2900 or even 2850 is possible. Resistance is concentrated at 2975 and 3000 levels; without effective突破, reversal is unlikely. For trading, focus on shorting rebounds around 2970-3010 with strict stop-loss above 3100. If price retraces to 2920-2900, consider light long positions with stop-loss below 2890 to avoid deep losses. Mid-term strategy remains cautious; wait for clear signs of stabilization or volume breakout above 3000 and 3050 before considering long positions. Patience is advised for better entry signals.

6. Risk Warning The market currently shows continuous volume decline and increased volatility, especially with rapid volume release during dips, indicating high risk of sharp oscillations and sudden flash crashes. If support at 2920-2900 is broken, further downside is likely, requiring heightened alertness. Attempting to position on the left side (buying dips) must be strictly risk-controlled to avoid significant losses from chasing rallies. No major positive catalysts are currently supporting prices, and the overall environment remains prone to secondary lows. Investors should maintain reasonable positions, respond flexibly, strictly follow stop-loss rules, and monitor market sentiment changes.