Data never lies, but it can be confusing—what matters is whether you can see through the evolution of market structure behind the data. If you want to find opportunities in the volatility of 2026, this hurdle cannot be bypassed.

Having been active in the crypto market for nearly ten years, I have watched countless so-called "bear markets" shake out panicked retail investors. There will still be turbulence in 2026, but the market's bottom logic has completely changed. Those still dreaming of Bitcoin falling back to $30,000–$40,000 are likely to be disappointed.

Today, I will use the simplest words combined with a few hard indicators to clarify why Bitcoin's bottom zone has already shifted significantly upward.

**Market sentiment swings, cyclical laws are at work**

Let's look at the current market temperature. In fall 2025, the fear and greed index in the crypto market dropped to 15, a number that has only appeared a few times in history, each time corresponding to a key bottom zone.

Extreme fear is often a sign of market bottoming out. Social media is full of bearish voices, people around are cutting losses, and media are bearish on Bitcoin—at such moments, doomsday theories spread easily. But the reality is often the opposite; this is usually the darkness before dawn.

Although sentiment has somewhat improved now, it is far from crazy. This "depressed" state has been called by researchers the "bear market depression period," which may last another 100 to 120 days, until spring 2026 (April or May), when a more solid bottom will form.

**Cost basis moves upward, market structure has changed**

The key indicator PSIP plays a major role here. If you've looked at this indicator's historical performance, you'll see that the average holding cost line of market participants has already moved significantly upward.

What does this mean? It indicates that the true bottom is no longer at yesterday's prices. Large holders who bought at historical lows have long since exited, and new entrants have higher costs. While the market's capacity to bear declines, it also means that the probability of returning to low prices has greatly decreased.

In other words, Bitcoin's "floor" has been raised. To see prices of $30,000–$40,000 again, a true systemic risk must occur. Given the current institutional environment, the likelihood of such extreme events is something to be aware of.

**Long-term holders' behavior is changing**

Another detail worth noting is that the selling patterns of long-term holders are changing. In previous bear markets, these investors would sell off massively. Now? Although there is some loosening, the intensity is far less fierce. This indicates their expectations for the bottom have also shifted.

The performance of institutional investors during this adjustment also tells a story. They haven't panicked and sold off; instead, they have accumulated during certain periods. This calm attitude reflects their lack of confidence that lower prices will appear soon.

**Operational mindset for 2026**

This doesn't mean Bitcoin won't experience corrections—volatility in 2026 is certain. But if you're still waiting for $30,000–$40,000 prices, you might be disappointed. The current bottom zone is no longer there.

The real opportunity lies in understanding that the market structure has fundamentally changed. The bottom is no longer a specific price point but a change in market participants' psychology and cost structure. Once this change occurs, the starting point for the next rebound also shifts.

The crypto market always tests participants' psychology. Understanding the logic behind the data is more valuable than chasing a specific price number.