A recent news item has attracted market attention: abnormal fluctuations in the Venezuelan stablecoin market. Since January 7, USDT to Bolivar exchange rate dropped from about 880 straight down to around 500, with a quote on a compliant platform between 450-456, a decline of over 40%, essentially returning to the level of December 2025.

What exactly happened behind the scenes? Data indicates that the market has a bullish outlook due to increased dollar supply. Recent political developments in the US, coupled with the advancement of the new oil agreement, seem to have opened a window for foreign capital inflows. The result is—panic buying demand has significantly cooled, and the gap between the parallel exchange rate and the official rate has narrowed from a previous huge gap to about 31%.

But there is something worth warning about. Although the exchange rate market shows signs of short-term recovery, domestic inflation pressures and living costs remain high. The consensus among analysts is: without sustained and stable foreign capital injection, the currently "stable" situation may just be a fleeting rebound.

Is this round of fluctuation a true turning point in the economic situation, or just a short-term technical fluctuation? Sharp swings in stablecoin prices often indicate significant changes in market expectations. It is worth continuing to observe whether new foreign capital inflow data confirms this trend.